Only light precip likely in 2 states, Fl and WI - while key swing states, weather prob not bad enough to deter voters, wapo.st/SO0dnx
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) Nov. 5, 2012
The Capital Weather Gang has posted their Election Day forecast. Like everything else in the run-up to election day, it's focused on states that could determine the next commander-in-chief.
Mildly inclement weather could affect two key swing states in the Presidential race:
* Intermittent, scattered showers and a few thundershowers could fall in the northern half of Florida, but widespread heavy rain is not likely.
* Mainly light rain showers are likely in Wisconsin, which may mix with snow in the northern part of the state. Snow accumulation is not expected.
While a nuisance, weather conditions in these states are unlikely to markedly deter voters. As such, weather on Election Day probably won’t have a meaningful effect on voter turnout and key races.
Turnout is expected to be lower in areas hit hard by Hurricane Sandy, as CWG notes, though weather on Election Day in those places is expected to be calm. Three competitive House districts were badly damaged by the storm, with lower turnout likely: New York's 1st district, held by Rep.Tim Bishop (D); New York’s 11th district, held by Rep. Michael Grimm (R); and New Jersey’s 3rd district, held by Rep. Jon Runyan (R).
A fun fact from CWG's post: Weather considerations are partially to thank for the election being held in early November: It was set after harvest season, before winter storms, to accommodate farm workers who had to trek to far-flung polling places.