Why Romney thought he would win

On Election Day, Mitt Romney wrote a victory speech but not a concession speech. The New Republic got hold of some internal data that convinced Republicans they would prevail.

Romney's polls had the Republican candidate leading in Colorado and New Hampshire in the final days of the campaign. He was tied in Iowa and down two points in Ohio. The internal polls had Pennsylvania closer than Wisconsin, which helps explain why Romney went there the weekend before the election. Other reports say Romney's team thought Florida and Virginia were already in the bag.

Pollster Neil Newhouse explained that the campaign tracked how well Romney was doing against Obama with people most interested in the election — but these most enthusiastic voters turned out to be a smaller share of the electorate than they predicted.

Rachel Weiner covers local politics for The Washington Post.

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Rachel Weiner · November 29, 2012

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