The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 4

Opening statements - Michael Reynolds / AP

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

NPR: Obama 51, Romney 44

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 46

Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 46

Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 51, Obama 47

Missouri (PPP): Romney 51, Obama 45

Wisconsin (Marquette University): Obama 53, Romney 42

Arizona (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 44

New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton): Obama 56, Romney 39

Washington (SurveyUSA): Obama 56, Romney 36

Texas (Texas Lyceum): Romney 58, Obama 39

Race: Senate

Virginia Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Kaine (D) 49, Allen (R) 44

Ohio Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Brown (D) 50, Mandel (R) 41

Florida Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Nelson (D) 52, Mack (R) 41

Missouri Senate (Rasmussen Reports): McCaskill (D) 51, Akin (R) 45

Missouri Senate (PPP): McCaskill (D) 46, Akin (R) 40

Wisconsin Senate (Marquette University): Baldwin (D) 48, Thompson (R) 44

Arizona Senate (PPP): Flake 43 (R), Carmona 45 (D)

Texas Senate (Texas Lyceum): Cruz 50 (R), Sadler 24 (D)

Race: Governor

Washington Governor (SurveyUSA): Inslee 48 (D), McKenna 42 (R)


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 338; Romney: 200


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 319.3; Romney: 218.7

Chance of winning: Obama: 86.1%; Romney: 13.9%

Popular Vote: Obama: 51.5%; Romney: 47.4%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.8; Republicans: 48.2

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 80.2%; Republicans: 19.8%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 50-55D/I)


Barack Obama - The Real Mitt Romney

Barack Obama - Trust

Barack Obama - Mitt Romney's Debate Performance: "Mostly Fiction"

Barack Obama - Vice President Joe Biden's Post-Debate Remarks

Mitt Romney - 12 Million Jobs

Mitt Romney - Who Will Raise Taxes?

Mitt Romney - We Can't Afford Four More Years



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Ezra Klein · October 4, 2012

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