The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Friday, Oct. 5

Mitt Romney's new campaign ad, "The Facts Are Clear"

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Florida (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 49, Obama 47

Florida (WeAskAmerica): Romney 49, Obama 46

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 49

Virginia (WeAskAmerica): Obama 45, Romney 48

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 49

Ohio (WeAskAmerica): Obama 46, Romney 47

Nevada (Gravis Marketing): Obama 49, Romney 48

Race: Senate

Virginia Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Kaine (D) 52, Allen (R) 45


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 338; Romney: 200


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 321.2; Romney: 216.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 87.1%; Romney: 12.9%

Popular Vote: Obama: 51.6%; Romney: 47.3%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7%; Republicans: 17.3%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 319; Romney: 219

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)


Barack Obama - Mitt Romney Isn't Telling the Truth

Barack Obama - Mitt Romney's Disdain For The Middle Class: He Said It, He Meant It

Mitt Romney - Ohio Jobs

Mitt Romney - Facts Are Clear



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Sarah Kliff · October 5, 2012