The Washington Post

The 2012 Election in Numbers: Tuesday, Oct. 16

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 50, Obama 46

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 46, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

New Hampshire (Suffolk/7News): Obama 47, Romney 47

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 46

Colorado (WeAskAmerica): Romney 48, Obama 47

Iowa (WeAskAmerica): Obama 49, Romney 46

New Jersey (Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 43

Indiana (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 54, Obama 41

Washington (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40

Massachusetts (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 57, Romney 42

Race: Senate

Montana (Rasmussen Reports): Rehberg (R) 48, Tester (D) 48

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac): Casey (D) 48, Smith (R) 45

New Jersey (Quinnipiac): Menendez (D) 55, Kyrillos (R) 37

Race: Governor

Washington (SurveyUSA): Inslee (D) 47, McKenna (R) 44

Washington (Rasmussen Reports): Inslee (D) 47, McKenna (R) 45

New Hampshire (Suffolk/7News): Lamontagne (R) 38, Hassan (D) 41

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): McCrory (R) 52, Dalton (D) 38

North Carolina (PPP): McCrory (R) 47, Dalton (D) 37


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 289.2; Romney: 248.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 66.0%; Romney: 34.0%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.1%; Romney: 48.8%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 280; Romney: 258

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)


Barack Obama — President Clinton Explains Mitt Romney's $5 Trillion Tax Cut

Barack Obama — Obama Pride: LGBT Americans for Obama

Barack Obama — Obama Pride: Ricky Martin

Barack Obama — Obama Pride: Billie Jean King

Mitt Romney — Uniquely Qualified



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Ezra Klein · October 16, 2012

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