The 2012 Election in Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 17


Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 45, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Wisconsin (Marquette University): Obama 49, Romney 48

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 49

Nevada (LVRJ/SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 45

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 47

Montana (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 53, Obama 45

New Jersey (Neighborhood Research): Obama 48, Romney 41

Connecticut (Siena): Obama 53, Romney 38

Washington (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 55, Romney 42

Race: Senate

Wisconsin (Marquette University): Baldwin (D) 45, Thompson (R) 46

===

Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

===

FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 287.0; Romney: 251.0

Chance of winning: Obama: 64.8%; Romney: 35.2%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.1%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 290; Romney: 248

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Barack Obama — President Obama: Commit to Vote

Barack Obama — President Obama in Mount Vernon, Iowa - 10/17/2012 - Full Speech

Barack Obama — President Obama Won

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney's Condescending Views Toward Women

Barack Obama — President Obama on Libya: "I'm the President and I'm Always Responsible." - 2012 Presidential Debate

Barack Obama — President Obama's Closing Remarks - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Women's Rights - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Mitt Romney's Sketchy Deal - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on the Romney Plan for Women - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney on Pay Equity for Women: "Binders Full of Women" - 2012 Presidential Debate

Barack Obama — President Obama: Giving Middle Class Families Relief - 2012 Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Energy and the Environment - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Romney's Immigration Plan - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — Ride for the President

Mitt Romney — The Choice

Mitt Romney — Soluciones para la Inmigración

Mitt Romney — Cabinet Members - Humanity

business

wonkblog

Success! Check your inbox for details. You might also like:

Please enter a valid email address

See all newsletters

Comments
Show Comments
Most Read Business

business

wonkblog

Success! Check your inbox for details.

See all newsletters

Next Story
Dylan Matthews · October 17, 2012

To keep reading, please enter your email address.

You’ll also receive from The Washington Post:
  • A free 6-week digital subscription
  • Our daily newsletter in your inbox

Please enter a valid email address

I have read and agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Please indicate agreement.

Thank you.

Check your inbox. We’ve sent an email explaining how to set up an account and activate your free digital subscription.