The 2012 Election in Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 24


Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 47

Rasmussen Reports: Romney 50, Obama 46

ABC News/Wash Post: Romney 49, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP: Romney 44, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Time): Obama 49, Romney 44

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 48

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 44

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 50

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 48

Nevada (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

Connecticut (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 41

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 56, Romney 36

Arkansas (The Arkansas Poll): Romney 58, Obama 31

Race: Senate

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Warren (D) 50, Brown 44

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Brown 48, Mandel (R) 44

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Brown 43, Mandel (R) 42

Connecticut (Quinnipiac): Murphy (D) 49, McMahon (R) 43

Nevada (PPP): Heller (R) 44, Berkley (D) 44

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 288.3; Romney: 249.7

Chance of winning: Obama: 68.1%; Romney: 31.9%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 87.6%; Republicans: 12.4%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 293; Romney: 245

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 52-55 D/I)

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Mitt Romney — Momentum

Barack Obama — What He'll Do Barack Obama — El Voto Es Critíco Barack Obama — He's Got It Right Barack Obama — 537

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Ezra Klein · October 24, 2012

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