The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Nov. 5


Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup: Obama 49, Romney 50

ABC News/Wash Post: Obama 50, Romney 47

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 48, Romney 49

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48, Romney 48

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.): Obama 50, Romney 49

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 49, Romney 49

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 44

Ohio (Gravis Marketing): Obama 49, Romney 48

Florida (Florida Times-Union/InAdv): Romney 52, Obama 47

Florida (Gravis Marketing): Romney 49, Obama 49

Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 47

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 50

Iowa (ARG): Obama 48, Romney 49

New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Obama 51, Romney 48

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 48

New Hampshire (ARG): Obama 49, Romney 49

New Hampshire (New England College): Obama 50, Romney 46

Pennsylvania (Gravis Marketing): Obama 49, Romney 46

Colorado (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

Nevada (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

Missouri (SurveyUSA): Romney 50, Obama 43

Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA): Obama 52, Romney 41

Massachusetts (UMass/Boston Herald): Obama 57, Romney 37

Race: Senate

Massachusetts (UMass/Boston Herald): Warren (D) 48, Brown (R) 49

Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Kaine (D) 49, Allen (R) 46

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Kaine (D) 49, Allen (R) 47

Ohio (Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.): Brown (D) 51, Mandel (R) 47

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Brown (D) 50, Mandel (R) 48

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Brown 44 (D), Mandel (R) 41

Nevada (PPP): Heller (R) 48, Berkley (D) 46

Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA): Klobuchar (D) 60, Bills 30

Race: House

Minnesota 8th District (KSTP/SurveyUSA): Nolan 47, Cravaack 45

New Hampshire 1st District (WMUR/UNH): Shea-Porter 49, Guinta 46

New Hampshire 2nd District (WMUR/UNH): Kuster 53, Bass 43

Race: Governor

New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Hassan (D) 54, Lamontagne (R) 43

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Hassan (D) 50, Lamontagne (R) 45

New Hampshire (New England College): Hassan (D) 47, Lamontagne (R) 45

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 326; Romney: 212

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 307.2; Romney: 230.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 86.3%; Romney: 13.7%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.6%; Romney: 48.5%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.5; Republicans: 47.5

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 91.5%; Republicans: 8.5%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 310; Romney: 228

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Barack Obama — Faces of GOTV

Barack Obama — President Obama: "Let's Get Out There and Vote"

Barack Obama — First Lady Michelle Obama: "Keep Pushing Forward"

Barack Obama — Stevie Wonder Sings "Fired Up! Ready to Go!" at President Obama's Grassroots Rally in Cincinatti

Barack Obama — Make a Plan to Move Forward

Barack Obama — President Obama in Hilliard, Ohio: Keep Pushing Forward

Barack Obama — 36 Votes

Barack Obama — Magic Johnson Supports President Obama: "Look How Far We've Come."

Mitt Romney — Strong America

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Brad Plumer · November 5, 2012