The two charts you need to see to understand Obama’s new budget

President Obama is just out with his newest budget request — which forecasts a dramatic reduction in deficits over the coming decade. The request paints a much rosier debt scenario than a report released by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office a month ago. In his budget request, Obama projects public debt as a percentage of gross domestic project falling to 69 percent by 2024, while the CBO has it rising to 79 percent — a difference of 10 percentage points, or roughly $2.7 trillion.

rosy_budget_part_1

This is largely because Obama assumes the passage of legislation that the CBO doesn't, and he assumes those laws will generate far more revenue over the next decade. In 2024, the spending/revenue gap (i.e., the annual deficit) in Obama’s budget amounts to 1.6 percent of GDP. CBO’s projected deficit is more than twice that, at 4 percent of GDP.

The difference lies largely on the revenue side – Obama assumes hearty revenue increases coming from the elimination of tax breaks benefiting the wealthy.

rosy_budget_part_2

Of course, these revenue increases assume a compliant Congress that works with the White House to pass major new legislation in the coming years. And the likelihood of that particular scenario is almost zero.

President Obama spoke about the 2015 proposed budget that he sent to Congress Tuesday at Powell Elementary School in Northwest D.C. (The Associated Press)

More on the budget:

Obama budget seeks new spending, new taxes to boost economy, tame debt

Why presidents often don’t get the budgets they want, in one amazing chart

Five reasons Obama’s budget matters even less than usual this year

Christopher Ingraham writes about politics, drug policy and all things data. He previously worked at the Brookings Institution and the Pew Research Center.

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Zachary A. Goldfarb · March 4, 2014

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