Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status.
More than eight in 10 Americans still rate the national economy negatively, but there are strains of optimism as it continues to recover from the collapse of 2008. A majority of Americans — 54 percent — say they are more hopeful than anxious about the situation over the next few years, while 58 percent are bullish about their financial prospects.
But it is a rearview-mirror assessment that could hurt Obama’s chances for a second term. One key indicator has hardly budged this year: Asked where they stand financially compared with when Obama took office in January 2009, 30 percent say they are worse off, and only 16 percent say they are better off. There is not a widespread sense that things would be better had Romney been president for the past three-plus years, but for the incumbent it is a critical measure. On this question, Obama’s numbers continue to resemble those of George H.W. Bush, who lost his bid for reelection in 1992 amid a flagging economy.
Voters are evenly divided between Obama and Romney on the question of who could kick-start the economy and also are split on job creation, with 46 percent siding with the president and 45 percent with Romney.
Obama fares better in some other assessments. He is ahead of Romney by eight percentage points on the question of who better understands people’s economic problems. He is up 52 percent to 39 percent as the one with “better personal character to serve as president,” and also by double digits as standing up for what he believes in. On “personal values,” voters are about evenly split.
Deep partisan divisions exist not only on questions that pit Obama and Romney against each other but also on perceptions of the economy. Democrats are more apt than Republicans to say the economy is in good shape, and are more hopeful about its trajectory. More Democrats than Republicans are optimistic about their financial futures.
The across-the-board partisanship makes it harder for either candidate to gain the edge — people’s views are stubbornly related to their underlying party leanings.
The Obama campaign last week attacked Romney’s record at Bain Capital, arguing that the private-equity firm made money at the companies it invested in at workers’ expense. Romney’s team responded that, overall, Bain had created jobs rather than cut them.
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