The key factor, several analysts told me, is whether major business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are on board. “The business community has been AWOL,” argues Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar with the American Enterprise Institute. He says that traditional business groups such as the chamber have ceded the ground to more right-wing groups such as the Club for Growth and Heritage Action.
The numbers show why pro-business Republicans should be worried. The New York Times summarized a recent study by Macroeconomic Advisers that estimated the cost of this month’s shutdown at $12 billion in lost output; other estimates are double that. Over the past year, says Macroeconomic Advisers, uncertainty caused by budget showdowns has cost the nation $150 billion in gross domestic product and 900,000 jobs.
A backlash is clearly building within the GOP and beyond. Conservative commentator Rod Dreher wrote in the American Conservative about “the tragedy of tea party Republicans destroying their credibility with reckless brinksmanship.” David Frum, a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush, urged the GOP to expel tea party members and argued, “Right now, tea party extremism contaminates the whole Republican brand.”
GOP strategists told me that the basic ingredients for revival include: good candidates in key districts; a national nest egg of perhaps $200 million to $300 million; and a “galvanizing” national political leader, such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or former Florida governor Jeb Bush. Put these three factors together in the 2014 Republican primaries, and you could see some surprising results, they argue.
Several strategists offered a similar breakdown of the House’s 232 GOP members: They say the key to change is challenging the 40 hard-core extremists and perhaps 40 more who sympathize with them, while protecting the roughly 100 conservative House Republicans who are wary of the tea party but don’t want to take on the Club for Growth and Heritage Action.
Strategists caution that primary challenges won’t work without good local candidates who are well funded. Otherwise, “the GOP is going over Niagara Falls,” says one prominent adviser to several Republican presidents.
An example of how the grass-roots process could work is the Grand Rapids, Mich., district of Rep. Justin Amash, a tea party activist elected in 2010. As explained by The Post’s Philip Rucker, Amash is facing a primary challenge from Brian Ellis, a local business leader who sits on the school board and epitomizes the traditional GOP mainstream. Similar primary challenges are brewing against tea party Republicans in Alabama and Idaho, according to The Post’s Jia Lynn Yang and Tom Hamburger.
What are the political mechanics of rolling back tea party power? For that, I turned to Plouffe, the Democratic master strategist who engineered President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories and is, by many accounts, the most skillful practitioner of techno-politics in the country today.
Plouffe argues that tea party incumbents are much more vulnerable than is commonly recognized — but only to challengers who are able to expand the size of the turnout in GOP primaries. Higher turnout is a result, he explains, of good candidates who can energize volunteers and “good data” that can identify who has voted over the past few elections and who hasn’t — and then drive turnout for the challenger.
In states with open primaries where independents can vote, expanding the turnout in GOP primaries would be relatively easy, Plouffe says. But even in states with closed primaries, good data and voter-mobilization tools would put many districts within reach of a strong, well-financed challenger.
The country has lived through a nightmare over the past few weeks, but the tea party is already gearing up for the next round. “See, we’re going to start this all over again,” promised Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana. Republicans who want to stop this destructive politics from further undermining their party and the nation need to get started now.
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