It’s an impressive record in many ways, and foreign policy could actually be President Obama’s strong suit as he campaigns next year. But here’s a caution to White House officials: Obama won’t be running against Bush. Slaying the dragons of the past isn’t enough; it’s the new dangers and challenges that matter.
The administration’s foreign policy is long on self-congratulation about the past and short on strategic clarity toward the future. Rather than measuring itself against its predecessor, this White House should be looking toward 2012 and beyond: How would Obama shape the world in a second term? What strategic vision animates his policies?
Here are three areas in which Obama should work on what George H.W. Bush called the “vision thing.” These problems will top the global agenda after the 2012 election, and Obama should begin explaining how he will deal with them:
The “global political awakening.” Zbigniew Brzezinski, the prescient former national security adviser, used this term in 2008 to describe citizen empowerment in the Internet age. The movement is spreading rapidly. A year that began with the Arab Spring is ending with open dissent in Russia against Vladimir Putin. Time magazine chose “the protester” as its person of the year.
But as with any revolution, it’s uncertain whether these uprisings will produce greater openness and freedom, or mob rule followed by a new wave of authoritarianism. One lesson from U.S. history is that successful revolutions must be consolidated by a strong constitution and bill of rights that protect individuals and minorities. I hope Obama will make this a theme of 2012.
A “reset” with Pakistan. Obama rightly understood that the war in Afghanistan had to be linked with stability in Pakistan, but his approach is backfiring — with a militarized Pakistan on the way to becoming the world’s first nuclear “failed state.” A Pakistani source shared the chilling text of a Nov. 30 command communique from Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the army chief, to his troops. It treated the Nov. 26 border strike that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers as a deliberate act of U.S. aggression and warned: “We will not let the aggressors walk away easily.”
When Pakistan talks as if it’s at war with America, it’s time to push the reset button. A new start for the two countries should build on the most positive development in the region: the recent improvement in India-Pakistan relations and a shared interest in averting a civil war in Afghanistan. A Pakistan that trades more with India will become more prosperous, more connected to the global political awakening, more secure militarily and better able to survive as a democracy.
A sane, comprehensive strategy for Iran. Republican candidates have been making reckless threats of military action against Tehran. To counter them, Obama needs a clear alternative approach to deterring Iran’s nuclear program.
Here’s an Iran strategy that would be tough but not crazy: sanctions that would gradually cripple Iran’s ability to export oil, so that Tehran is forced to choose between being an oil power or a nuclear power; a U.S. contingency plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in less than a week if Iran tries to close it; and careful preparation with allies in Europe, Asia and the Persian Gulf so that squeezing Iran doesn’t explode an already shaky world economy.
The administration has been working on such a pragmatic Iran strategy, and the president should articulate it soon. That’s the best rejoinder to glib calls by Newt Gingrich and other Republicans to bomb Iran.
Obama can campaign as a foreign-policy president but only if he states his plans more clearly — not running against George W. Bush’s record anymore but explaining what he will do if he wins a second term.