Pentagon officials talk about “demilitarizing” U.S. foreign policy, which one can understand after the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the conventional wisdom now puts too much weight on “soft” power. We should not overestimate how much the world loves us because of our virtues, nor underestimate how much our influence still depends on hard power and our ability to provide protection in a pinch.
Europe matters: It’s the Asian century, right? It’s all about the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) plus Turkey. Well, not so fast. One of the year’s biggest issues will be whether Europe can work through its economic crisis and remain intact. This affects more than the U.S. and world economies: The fact is, Europe remains a large and vital player. The European Union still has the world’s largest economy. The fact that many if not all of its neighbors would like to join the E.U., even now, is significant. Its military capability is, unfortunately, diminishing, but even so Europe remains America’s go-to ally in major crises.
Robert Kagan
Kagan writes a monthly foreign affairs column.
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Meanwhile, the much-discussed “rise of the rest” has been overhyped. U.S. business leaders, and their pals in the punditocracy, have been mesmerized by these emerging markets. But emerging markets do not equate to emerging great powers. Russia is no longer “rising.” Brazil’s role in the world is underwhelming. Turkey’s impact has yet to be demonstrated. India has not decided what it wants to be. Even China, though unquestionably a major player, has not yet taken on a great power’s role. For the United States, Europe remains the key ally in shoring up the norms and principles of a liberal world order. Should Europe fall, the blow to U.S. interests would be staggering.
America matters: Reports of U.S. decline are extraordinarily premature. The country remains the central player in all regions of the world. Washington may not be able to have its way on all issues or provide solutions for all the world’s problems. But, then, it never could. Many today have nostalgia for an era of U.S. predominance that never existed.
But in the coming months, whether the issue is Iran, Syria or Asian security, regional players will continue to look to the United States. No other nation or group of nations comes close to enjoying America’s global web of alliances. None wields more political influence in international forums. And unless and until the United States renders itself weak by unnecessary defense budget cuts, there will be no substitute for it as a provider of security and defender of an open political and economic order. Perhaps 2012 will be the year Americans gain a renewed understanding of that enduring reality.
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes a monthly column for The Post. His latest book, “The World America Made,” will be published next month.
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