Stephen J. Hadley, a principal at RiceHadleyGates LLC, was national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration.
Syria continues to go from bad to worse to terrible. The United States continues to follow events, not lead them. U.S. officials worry that greater violence, if not chaos, will follow the fall of Bashar al-Assad. They may be right, given the regime’s decades of misrule. But time matters.
The longer Assad clings to power, the worse the post-Assad period is likely to be; the longer violence will continue (and the more sectarian the struggle will become), the more Syrians will die, the more refugees will be created and the greater the opportunity for al-Qaeda to establish a terrorist beachhead in Syria.
What began as a peaceful civil resistance is increasingly degenerating into a sectarian war between Syria’s Sunnis and its Alawite Shiites that will almost surely spread beyond its borders. A war between Sunni and Shiite — backed by the Sunni Arab states on the one hand and Shiite Iran on the other — risks destabilizing not just Syria but also Iraq (which is still recovering from its own sectarian violence), Lebanon (which only recently regained its independence from Syrian occupation), Jordan (a long-standing U.S. ally) and even Turkey (worried about its restive Kurdish minority). Any of those developments would be a huge setback for U.S. allies and regional stability. It would squander a decade of U.S. investment of blood and treasure in the Middle East.
To avoid this looming debacle, the United States needs a much more active Syria policy. Necessary steps include:
●Accelerate efforts to help develop a more unified and inclusive Syrian opposition with an inclusive, cross-sectarian message. U.S. officials have made a significant effort and found it frustrating work, but there are signs of progress. Some Kurdish and Palestinian groups show signs of splitting from the Assad regime and moving to the opposition. Yet another inclusive, cross-sectarian statement was adopted by elements of the opposition last month.
●Increase efforts by U.S. intelligence officers to vet opposition groups. Identify those who support a unified Syrian opposition with an inclusive, cross-sectarian message and who are not affiliated with al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. Help direct to such groups weapons provided by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the United States and European states. Include appropriate numbers of antiaircraft and antitank weapons so these groups can create no-fly/no-drive havens in which to train their forces and shelter at-risk civilians.
●Expand non-lethal support to these vetted opposition groups. Include food, water, cooking oil and fuel so they can provision themselves and take care of civilians in areas liberated from the Assad regime.
●Stop pursuing the Syrian issue in the U.N. Security Council. This would send a message to all Syrians, including the regime, that Russia and China can no longer protect Assad from the rest of the international community. The Security Council would have a role in helping the Syrian people achieve security and rebuild, but only after Assad goes.
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