As for the Israelis, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned about Israel’s isolation but worries more that serious negotiation with the Palestinians would undermine his government and put him in a position where he can’t or won’t meet Palestinian bottom lines on Jerusalem or refugees.
Netanyahu rightly calculates that Obama has no choice but to stand with him in opposing Palestinian action at the United Nations, and he is counting on the United States to sway a number of Europeans. He has already gotten Washington to buy into his requirement that Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish state or at least endorse that as a legitimate demand in negotiations. He is prepared to blast Palestinians for going to the United Nations instead of the negotiating table and for the PA’s unity talks with Hamas terrorists. If negotiations resume, he’s prepared to accept Obama’s formula of June 1967 borders with swaps — on this point alone, the two sides could talk interminably without resolving anything.
The Obama administration has learned a few things. The president doesn’t want to oppose Palestinian statehood, which he supports, and he really can’t stand Netanyahu. But he knows that given all of his other priorities, he doesn’t need a high-profile failure of the peace process or a fight with Israelis, Republicans or American Jews over a U.N. resolution criticizing a close ally. Obama isn’t looking forward to it, but he’s prepared to lay the dead cat in Ramallah if necessary or, if he really gets mad, at Netanyahu’s doorstep.
The Israeli-Palestinian issue should not be trivialized. Last week’s attacks near Eilat and the Israeli response show that violence always looms; Palestinians are suffering; Israel’s character as a Jewish and democratic state is at risk; and American credibility is on the line. But if Israeli and Palestinian leaders wanted to solve their problem, or at least make a serious run at negotiating (with or without U.S. help), we would not be on the verge of a big blame game. The fact is, however unpleasant the status quo, keeping things as they are strikes Israelis, Palestinians and Americans as much less risky than the decisions required to change it. Until that calculation changes — driven by the prospects of real pain and gain — there are going to be a lot more dead cats in the neighborhood.
Aaron David Miller, a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, has advised Republican and Democratic secretaries of state on the Middle East peace process. His next book, “Can America Have Another Great President?,” will be published in 2012.
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