The second ad Romney should run is a negative spot against Gingrich. While Paul or Santorum may be the surprise winner — or “surpasser of expectations” — in Iowa, Romney needs to get rid of the former House speaker, who still has a strong shot in South Carolina.
This attack ad would not feature a narrator, as is typical of many of the negative ads so far. Instead, it would be a “man on the street” spot. An ad like this almost derailed the first candidate I worked for, Jimmy Carter, when he ran against Gerald Ford. The Ford campaign went to Georgia and asked people about Carter as governor, and many of those Georgians had some nasty things to say.
Sending a camera crew to Gingrich’s old congressional district in Georgia would, I believe, yield a similar result. A lot of people don’t like Gingrich, and to go back to his home base and let people speak about his flaws — from his marital infidelities to his cozying up with Democrats on issues such as climate change — could be devastating. Those real voters whom Gingrich once represented could have an enormous impact in South Carolina and Florida — Georgians look and sound a lot like their neighbors. And voters give these types of ads, assuming they are not staged, more latitude in terms of how tough they can be, compared with the more traditional negative ads in which a narrator lists a candidate’s flaws.
I know this well — and so should Romney. I produced a series of testimonial ads against him for Sen. Ted Kennedy’s reelection campaign in 1994. They featured workers from a Marion, Ind., plant that Romney’s firm, Bain Capital, had taken over and devastated. And if Paul or someone else becomes the Republican flavor of the week, an ad like this (“Texas Voices,” for instance) from that candidate’s home base would be equally damaging.
‘A Future to Believe In’
The third ad the Romney campaign should run would feature the “candidate to camera” — still the single most powerful technique in political advertising. Barack Obama used such ads consistently in his campaign four years ago. Romney needs to connect with voters, to tell them why he is running for president and what he will do to change the country’s direction. He needs to talk about creating jobs and focus relentlessly on the future. Romney has the look and presence to pull off a presidential spot. Since he has some of the best admakers in the Republican Party working for him, there is little doubt that they could make it work.
Voters put a premium on live and unfiltered events. Romney speaking to the camera in an honest and compelling way is the closest his campaign can come to recapturing that dynamic. While the Romney camp has attempted to do this in several ads thus far, using footage from the debates and from speeches, those settings only underline the political dimension that Romney should try to avoid. He may be asking voters to “Believe in America,” but his real challenge is getting them to believe in him. Speaking directly to them is the best way to overcome that obstacle.
To win the nomination, Romney should be prepared to do what Kerry did in 2004: Make sure his campaign has the resources it needs to win the early states and gather the momentum necessary to secure his party’s nod. Kerry chose in the primary process to go outside the public funding scheme for a simple reason — Gov. Howard Dean was likely to do so, giving him an inordinate advantage.
Romney must likewise be prepared to put his own wealth into the race, as Kerry did. Romney did so in the last campaign and has been reluctant to do it this time. But he needs a dominant paid media presence in South Carolina and Florida — not just a couple of weeks of TV ads, but a sustained television fight.
Past advertising campaigns — from Carter to Dukakis, from Kennedy to Kerry — provide a road map that could propel Romney to the Republican presidential nomination. If he pulls it off, he could be a formidable opponent for President Obama. If he doesn’t, it means he has lost not to a strong and proven foe such as McCain, but to the weakest Republican field in my lifetime.
outlook@washpost.com
Tad Devine is a Democratic media consultant who worked for five of his party’s presidential nominees, including as a senior adviser to Al Gore and John Kerry.
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