That’s not where things stand today. Prospective Republican candidates are having to rethink their assumptions at a time when they are at the mercy of other events and other people and when public opinion on many of the big issues is unsettled.
Start with the budget battles in Washington. Republicans can take some satisfaction in knowing that their midterm victories have forced the president to give ground on the issue of spending, tax cuts, debt and deficits. The debate in Washington right now is about how much or little to cut spending. So there is still resonance in the GOP’s small-government message, but there is dissonance as well.
Republicans are badly split on how to fight this battle. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is caught between the demands of tea party activists and many freshman Republicans, who want a major confrontation, and the reality that some compromise will be required to keep the government running.
Party leaders such as Boehner want substantial cuts but also want to avoid a government shutdown. Some conservative members, responding to grass-roots sentiments, say a shutdown might be necessary to make the point that spending must be cut even more dramatically. “Shut it down!” Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) told a tea party rally Thursday.
No one can predict the outcome of this year’s budget battles. The question this weekend is whether Republicans, Democrats and the president can reach agreement on a measure to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year.
As this fight plays out, the more consequential battle will be joined. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is preparing to release a GOP budget that is expected to include big cuts in discretionary spending, entitlement reforms and other significant changes.
That will trigger a debate over the size and scope of government, spending priorities and political leadership that will probably reverberate into 2012. Will congressional Republicans smartly navigate these battles in a way that wins public support or misplay their hand in ways that damage the party’s presidential nominee in 2012?
The presidential candidates are mostly powerless to affect to how these events play out. In the meantime, they will have to decide whether to stand with those in the party who call for confrontation or those willing to try to negotiate a real agreement with Obama and the Democrats.
Republican presidential candidates have faced this problem before. In 1996, Bob Dole was hostage to the House Republicans, led by then-Speaker (and now likely 2012 candidate) Newt Gingrich, in the showdown with then-President Bill Clinton. Dole advisers watched helplessly as Gingrich helped force a government shutdown that helped boost Clinton’s standing and make the general election a foregone conclusion. Four years later, George W. Bush outlined his disagreements with House Republicans to appeal to swing voters.
Loading...
Comments