The latest embrace from these voters is to businessman Herman Cain, who shot up from 8 percent in July to 22 percent this month among strong conservatives on the heels of a win in the Florida GOP straw poll.
But some conservatives say Cain’s light campaigning in the early primary states means he is unlikely to turn his recent momentum into a formidable challenge to Romney.
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney on Saturday denounced "poisonous language" against faiths. His rival, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, steered well clear of that simmering issue and discussed "big government." (Oct. 8)
“I don’t know any Republican or conservative activist who really believes he is running for president of the United States,” said Steve Deace, a conservative talk show host in Iowa, arguing that Cain is largely trying to increase his fame through his White House run. “He has no certifiable on-the-ground operation in Iowa.”
And they say Perry will get a second look largely because of the $17 million he has raised for his campaign over the past three months, the most of any candidate.
“The HPV thing, immigration — he’s [Perry] obviously not the ideal,” said Andrew Hemingway, chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire, a conservative group that protested at a Romney speech in September. “But if it comes down to Romney and Perry, I’ll be with Perry.”
Julie Roe, a party activist in central Iowa, said, “Perry is okay; I could cast a vote in good conscience for him, warts and all.”
She added, “I would have to think about whether I would grace my bumper with a sticker or my yard with a sign.”
But the Texas governor is having to reestablish his conservative bona fides after increased attention to his support of a policy in Texas that grants in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. Campaigning in Iowa on Saturday, he listed all of his moves to limit illegal immigration in Texas, but voters kept pressing him on the tuition issue. Perry has said he stands by his decision. But he has said he erred in ordering mandatory inoculations of young girls with the HPV vaccine, which protects against a sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer.
“I wasn’t sure, really, I got what I was looking for,” said Fae Groff-Moritz, a medical records clerk who asked the governor about his immigration stance after an event in Orange City. She said Perry’s policy sounded as if he was giving illegal immigrants a “free ride.”
She added that she was considering several candidates, including Perry, but “I was really hoping for Christie.”
For Perry, consolidating this voting group is critical. The Republican field is effectively divided into two groups of candidates, with Romney and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. on the more moderate end, and Bachmann, Cain, Perry and others competing for the most conservative voters. Most party strategists believe the strong backers of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), the most libertarian of the Republicans, are unlikely to defect to another candidate and too few in number for him to win the race.
This dynamic is illustrated by how the candidates are handling the early states in the primary calendar. Romney has made few visits to Iowa, which has historically been dominated by the most conservative Republicans, while Bachmann and others have effectively ceded the more moderate New Hampshire to Romney.
Huntsman has not emerged as a real threat to Romney for the GOP moderate vote nationally or in New Hampshire. But the rise of Cain and the candidacies of Bachmann and former senator Rick Santorum, who are also aggressively courting the most conservative Republicans, are complicating Perry’s efforts to emerge as the favorite of voters who don’t like Romney.
Some anti-Romney Republicans are beginning to acknowledge that their votes could be divided, leading to a Romney victory.
“If Romney wins, it would show the weakness of us as a movement,” said Deace of conservatives.
But other Republicans remain confident that the party’s anti-establishment wing will eventually find a champion who will compete in a long primary battle with the former Massachusetts governor.
“When I meet with people in the grass roots, in a crowd of 100, when you ask who is for Romney, you only get one or two hands up,” said Adam Brandon, a spokesman for the tea party-affiliated group FreedomWorks. “There’s a huge opening.”
Polling manager Peyton Craighill contributed to this report.
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