Of the remaining eight, Republicans see their greatest opportunities in two southern states Obama carried: North Carolina and Virginia. Obama advisers have a different view, arguing that the electorates in both states, which include sizable African American populations as well as significant numbers of younger voters and well-educated newcomers, are prime prospects for Obama’s candidacy.
Florida and Ohio, two of the remaining Obama takeaway states, have been the focus of pitched battles in the past three presidential elections. Both could be competitive again. Democrats believe Florida is the less difficult of the two, if only because of the growing non-Cuban Hispanic population and the opportunity to expand the electorate. Economic problems abound there, however, and Republicans made major gains in 2010.
Ohio is challenging for Obama because of the state’s relentless economic problems and because its electorate is older and whiter than in some other states. Republicans scored major gains in Ohio last year, including the election of Gov. John Kasich. But his first year has been turbulent, and he faces possible repudiation Tuesday when the state decides whether to repeal a GOP bill that narrowed the collective-bargaining rights of public employees.
Three other Obama takeaways — Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada — came in the Rocky Mountain West, a region that has become increasingly competitive as the size of the Hispanic population has grown.
Nevada is ground zero of the home foreclosure crisis and has the nation’s highest unemployment rate. Colorado also will be a challenging environment for Obama, though he has a template for winning based on the strategy employed last year by Sen. Michael F. Bennet (D), who survived in a tough year thanks in part to mistakes by his opponent.
Beyond the nine states that flipped between 2004 and 2008, several other states will be competitive. Three are in the industrial heartland: Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have voted for Democratic nominees in five straight presidential elections, and Wisconsin, which has done so six times in a row. But Republicans hope to put all into play next year.
Martin Frost, a former House Democrat from Texas and past chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the mood of the country could make this election unique.
“I don’t think you can put 2012 in any neat little box and compare it to any particular past election,” he said. “Fasten your seat belts.”
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) worries that it could be a repeat of 2004.
“It will be an intensely negative and bitter election,” he said. “And that will complicate things enormously for the winner in 2013, just as it did for [George W.] Bush in his second term.”
Given the state of the country, that is a sobering reminder that elections have consequences, and not just in who wins or loses.
Polling manager Peyton M. Craighill contributed to this report.
Loading...
Comments