Betting the French credit rating drops next

It was only a matter of time. Paddy Power, which calls itself “Ireland’s largest bookmaker,” is out with a betting line on which country will be next to have its credit rating downgraded by Standard & Poor’s.

The bookies say France is the “early favorite” to get whacked, offering 2-1 odds Thursday that the rating agency will drop France down to AA+ from AAA. Paddy Power put the French in the top spot apparently after President Nicolas Sarkozy came out and insisted that no downgrade was imminent. (A fine vote of confidence in Sarkozy.)

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“Early betting trends suggest that France could be next in the firing line,” the bookmaker said, “but the USA downgrade shows that no country is safe.”

Although France is a clear favorite, Paddy Power is putting Canada and Britain — which has been battling some nasty street riots — next on the list, with 7-2 odds of a downgrade.

The betting line finds Austria at 7-1 and offers odds on other countries, including: Denmark and Australia at 10-1; Sweden and Finland at 25-1; Germany and Hong Kong at 33-1; and Switzerland at 40-1.

“The long shots in the race are European microstate Liechtenstein and United Kingdom tax havens the Isle of Man and Guernsey” at 100-1, the bookmaker says.

The bookies are giving 4-7 odds that the United States will be downgraded by Moody’s or Fitch rating services before the 2012 presidential election.

Mmm. That doesn’t sound good at all.

Sticky situation

It’s hardly a secret that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev can’t stand Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. In a recent Russian TV interview, Medvedev accused him — and Washington — of provoking the 2008 Russian invasion in which Georgia lost two ethnic enclaves to the Russians.

Medvedev said he wanted to see Saakashvili tried for war crimes and missed “no opportunity to denigrate” him, the New York Times reported last week. The Georgian was “a person I will never shake hands with,” Medvedev said, and “a difficult man to avoid, because he is gluey; if he wants to adhere to you, he will do a good job of it.”

“Gluey?” Is that an insult in Russian? Something really awful? An attack on his mom, manhood or family ? Hardly seems on a par with former KGB thug and now Russian Prime Minister Vladi­mir Putin’s colorful language when he talked about the Chechens, calling them all manner of lowlifes, threatening to wipe them out in an outhouse.

We checked with Natasha Simes, who coordinates the Russian language program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins. Simes advised that the Russian word is “lipki” — an adjective from the verb “lipnut’ ” — and that “a better translation would be ‘clinging.’ ”

Well, Medvedev comes from a family of professors, so his less piquant language may reflect that. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did a bit better Monday, calling Saakashvili “pathological.”

Filling partisan benches

The partisan battle over the debt ceiling was chaotic and confusing. Constantly shifting budget scenarios flying around, the Congressional Budget Office continually scoring this and that.