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Election 2016: Chris Cillizza’s 13 front-runners For political junkies, President Obama’s reelection means one thing for 2016: An open race, with candidates contesting for both major party nominations. Here’s the early line from The Fix’s Chris Cillizza on the 2016 candidates, in no particular order. So, dear readers, if it’s not too early for you, here goes:
1. Chris Christie — Governor of New Jersey
The idea that Christie’s kind treatment of Obama after Hurricane Sandy led to Mitt Romney’s loss is preposterous. (Exit poll numbers point to GOP problems with Hispanics and women.) If Christie can win reelection next year — and that’s a big “if” given that Newark mayor and Twitter superhero Cory Booker might run — Christie has a strong case to make. He would be a two-term blue state governor with a demonstrated appeal to the conservative base and the party establishment. One worry: Does a close inspection of his record as governor take some of the shine off of him for conservatives?
Clem Murray
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AP
2. Jeb Bush — Former governor of Florida
Of the two possible Florida Republicans, Bush probably has the right of first refusal in the race. He's the son of a president, the brother of a president, and a moderate for a party that is wondering if it moved too far right in 2012 to win. Our guess, however, is he stays away himself — Jeb doesn’t really love politics — and instead plays a leading role in guiding his political mentor, who is . . .
Hector Gabino
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AP
Marco Rubio — U.S. Senator (Fla.)
In his speech at the Republican National Convention, Florida's junior senator showed that he is in a different class, rhetorically speaking, than his potential competitors — delivering a speech that overperformed even the high expectations surrounding it. And, Rubio now has an opportunity to try to lead his party to its next stage by pushing for a reassessment of the GOP’s relationship (or lack thereof) with the Hispanic community. Plus, Florida.
J. Scott Applewhite
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AP
4. Bobby Jindal — Governor of Louisiana
Louisiana's governor seems all-but-certain to make a 2016 bid, and he’s got a strong argument. He’s Indian American (Republicans badly need non-white faces in top positions), he’s got a conservative record and he’s among the party's wonkiest members. Jindal’s time on the national stage hasn’t exactly been filled with star turns — his 2009 GOP response was super-awkward — but we’re impressed with his ability to move between politics and policy, a rare gift.
Patrick Kane
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AP
5. Paul Ryan — U.S. Representative (Wis.)
Mitt Romney, in his concession speech, said everything you need to know about his running mate’s interest in national office: ”I trust that his intellect and his hard work and his commitment to principle will continue to contribute to the good of our nation.'' Translation: Ryan is running. Ryan has raised his profile with GOP donors and activists. His announcement he would return to the House in 2013 to chair the Budget Committee suggests he will burnish his reputation as the “ideas guy” within the GOP and, perhaps, as the highest profile foil to Obama and his policies.
Mary Altaffer
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AP
6. Rand Paul — U.S. Senator (Ky.)
The Kentucky Senator will pick up the standard laid down by his father, Ron, ensuring himself at least 10 to 15 percent of the vote in every 2016 early-voting state. Those close to the Paul political world cast Rand Paul as Ron Paul 2.0; the son has dad’s core beliefs, but with a healthier dose of charisma and the occasional hedge of his views to court skeptical voters. Dismiss Rand Paul at your peril; if he runs, we believe he has a clear path to the 2016 top tier.
John Huff
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AP
1. Hillary Rodham Clinton — Secretary of State
The race for the Democratic nomination begins — and could end — with the decision of the soon-to-be former secretary of state. If she runs — and she has said she is not interested — it’s hard to imagine many other leading Democrats making the contest. (Biden could be an exception.) Clinton would bring her 2008 strengths — money, organization, an incredible political brand — without an Obama-like figure challenging her (at least not yet). Nothing will move in this race until Clinton gets in — or makes an airtight decision to stay out.
Saul Loeb
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Reuters
2. Joe Biden — Vice President
Just in case you had ruled out a Biden run in 2016 — he will be 73 on Election Day 2016 — Biden reminded you it was possible while voting on Tuesday. Asked whether this was the last time he would cast a ballot for himself, the vice president smiled mischievously and said, “No, I don’t think so.” If the best indicator of wanting to run for president is having run in the past, then Biden qualifies (1988, 2008). Pluses: The benefit of semi-incumbency and a top-tier team. Biden’s problems? One is named Hillary. The other is named Joe Biden.
Matt Rourke
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AP
3. Andrew Cuomo — Governor of New York
If Clinton and Biden stay out, New York's governor starts the 2016 race in front. Five things Cuomo has going for him: (1) He’s from a big and very Democratic state; (2) he can raise lots and lots of money; (3) he has a golden last name in U.S. politics; (4) he shepherded the New York same-sex marriage bill to law, making him a hero to the gay community; and (5) he is a political operative at heart, having played a lead strategy role in much of his father’s political career.
Tim Roske
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AP
4. Martin O'Malley — Governor of Maryland
The governor of Maryland used his perch as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association to boost his profile among reporters, donors and activists. Working for O’Malley is his record governing perhaps the nation's most liberal state, a top consulting team and his own political acumen. Minuses: The sense that he may be a poor man’s Cuomo and that he isn’t a proven national commodity.
Bill O'Leary
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The Washington Post
5. Kristen Gillibrand — U.S. Senator (N.Y.)
If Clinton doesn’t run, there will be an open spot for a woman in the field. Gillibrand, who filled Clinton’s seat in the Senate, seems the most ambitious of three female candidates from the U.S. Senate and could theoretically raise the sort of money she would need. Would she run if Cuomo, her mentor, ran? Probably not.
Seth Wenig
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AP
6. Elizabeth Warren — U.S. Senator-elect (Mass.)
Warren, who was elected to the Senate on Tuesday, seems uninterested in running for president, at least according to her political people. But the Harvard prof and national bankruptcy expert, who rose to prominence trying to sort out bank machinations in the 2008 Wall Street meltdown and bailout, is a rock star among the liberal left and, as she demonstrated in her Senate race, can raise money like few other people in the party.
Michael Dwyer
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AP
7. Amy Klobuchar — U.S. Senator (Minn.)
Klobuchar isn’t a household name nationally but all she does is continue to wrack up massive margins in the state of Minnesota; she was reelected on Tuesday with 65 percent of the vote. (Note: That's as Obama was winning with 53 percent in the Land of 10,000 Lakes). A presidential run would be a major step up for Klobuchar, but everything she has done in her political career to date would suggest she could make the leap.
Hannah Foslien
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AP
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