Democrats’ chances of re-taking the House improve

Democrats have been saying for a long time that control of the House of Representatives could be in play in 2012, and some Republicans are starting to agree with them.

Former congressman Tom Davis believes that Democrats would need a wave, and that one is possible. “Continued polarization and obstruction could create such a wave,” the Virginia Republican wrote recently in an op-ed in The Hill.

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Former Republican National Committee chairman Michael S. Steele agreed that keeping the majority isn’t a done deal: “It could be very, very hard.”

And last week, a member of the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board opined that the GOP majority could be in jeopardy if Republicans don’t make it a priority.

“The House is no sure thing,” Kimberly A. Strassel wrote.

In fact, there is a growing behind-the-scenes sense among House Republican leaders that the more the presidential race has enveloped the daily news, the importance of keeping the House has been lost.

Combine that with some recent momentum for Democrats, and it’s causing some unease inside the GOP.

This is not to say that there is a consensus in the GOP that its House majority is in danger.

“I just don’t think there’s a possibility that it happens,” said former congressman Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who, like Davis, is a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “With a 25-seat majority, I just don’t think they can get that much.”

But given that the last three election cycles saw at least 24 House seats changing parties, it is not outlandish to think a 25-seat GOP majority may be endangered. In today’s electoral environment, few majorities are safe.

Democrats believe that they have reason to be hopeful, beginning with their standing in the generic ballot. This measure basically shows that, given a choice between a nameless, faceless Republican and a nameless, faceless Democrat, voters right now prefer the Democrat — and by several points in some polls.

Republicans, though, note that Democrats generally have a small advantage on this measure. “They’ve done a heck of a spin” on the generic ballot, Reynolds said. “I think the generic ballot’s something to watch, but when I was chair, if Democrats had a four-point advantage, I looked at that as even.”

Democrats also believe that the president’s new momentum will help them. After two good jobs reports in a row, President Obama’s personal approval rating rose to 50 percent in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. On some level, the 2012 House election is really an extension of the presidential race, and for Democrats to retake the House, they probably have to keep the White House. That looks like more of a possibility today than it did Jan. 1.

On the fundraising front, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee actually outraised its GOP counterpart, the NRCC, by about $7 million last year, despite Republicans being in the majority. On top of that, Democratic challengers outraised more than a dozen GOP incumbents in the fourth quarter of 2011 — a strong sign of the quality of Democratic candidates.