Galston’s argument goes as follows: Ohio is a microcosm of the country. The strategy for winning a popular vote majority, which the president must do, amounts to the same in Ohio as it does nationally. Second, the economy will be the dominant issue in a way it was not in 2008. If Obama cannot persuade voters in Ohio, and nationally, that he has done everything he could to rebuild the country’s economic foundation, he’ll have trouble winning.
Galston acknowledges that Obama can lose Ohio and still win next year. But although that is arithmetically correct, he finds it politically irrelevant. “A candidate who can carry Ohio is almost certain to win the national election,” he writes. “A candidate who loses Ohio will almost certainly lose.”
See how the primaries are unfolding: An interactive graphic that tracks which candidates are visiting the early states and where they focusing their energy.
He notes that the last Democrat to win the presidency without Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960 but adds that Kennedy was able to win Texas, South Carolina, Georgia and half of Alabama’s electors. Obama won’t win any of those next year. And who was the last Republican to win the White House without Ohio? Well, there isn’t one.
Galston examines Ohio’s recent voting patterns and compares them with the overall national vote. He concludes that if Obama were to lose Ohio, he would be very likely to lose Florida, North Carolina and Indiana, where his vote share in 2008 was lower than it was in Ohio. That would not cost him the presidency but would put him “on the brink of defeat.” Galston argues, “That’s not a chance a sensible campaign would take.”
Obama’s advisers long have seen Ohio as a tough state for the president. They are prepared to fight hard there next year, as they will be in many other states. Galston’s argument is that the president would be better off if he had the Ohio electorate in his head from now until Election Day and not assume he can largely replicate the 2008 campaign.
Four years ago, the political climate was so favorable to Obama that he didn’t have to make some of the choices that could confront him in his reelection campaign. His advisers hope to keep their electoral map options open as long as possible. With the landscape as daunting as it appears and his coalition weakened, that won’t be as easy as it was in 2008.
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