But as the Las Vegas war room makes clear, there is now more of a team than Gingrich has let on, with new hires coming on board weekly, including local teams in such upcoming states as Arizona, Ohio and Texas. Baker, the political director, started in mid-December. A TV ad scriptwriter has joined the team, as have two pollsters and several general strategists. At the Palazzo, all of them gathered in a single room for the first time.
Depending on the South
Despite an easy victory by GOP front-runner Mitt Romney, former House speaker Newt Gingrich swatted aside any talk of a withdrawal after the Nevada caucuses Saturday. Gingrich says he'll campaign until the party convention this summer. (Feb. 4)
The winning candidate needs 1,144 delegates to claim the nomination. The process by which they’re awarded varies widely. In some states, for instance, delegates are won according to primary results at the congressional district level. Members of Gingrich’s team have studied the convoluted rules, and they believe they can win delegate-rich states but also collect delegates in states where Romney is expected to win but where delegates are awarded proportionally.
A central assumption of the victory plan is a strong showing in Southern states. According to two operatives close to Gingrich who requested anonymity to speak freely about internal discussions, the campaign will focus heavily on Georgia and Tennessee, which vote on Super Tuesday, March 6, and count for 76 and 55 delegates, respectively. They will also target Alabama (47), Mississippi (37), Missouri (52) and Louisiana (43), which vote later in the month. To put those numbers in perspective, consider that Romney won just 50 delegates in Florida’s winner-take-all primary, and he has won a total of 74, compared with Gingrich’s 26.
Gingrich’s Georgia roots give him an advantage over Romney in those states, the advisers say, and the evidence comes not only from his big win in South Carolina but also from the results in Florida, where Gingrich bested Romney in the Panhandle, the most “Southern” and therefore conservative part of the state, they said. Gingrich also has three surrogates who will begin campaigning heavily this month: former senator and presidential contender Fred Thompson of Tennessee, former congressman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. All three have significant followings among conservative voters, particularly evangelicals, whose votes could be crucial in the South.
Even in states such as Massachusetts and Vermont, which Romney is expected to win, delegates will be awarded proportionally, and Gingrich plans to win delegates, one by one, by using targeted phone lists and targeted mail and focusing on more conservative regions.
A central weakness of Gingrich’s strategy, however, is that even if it all goes like clockwork, he would still essentially be tied with Romney by April — when a series of winner-take-all contests is expected to favor Romney’s superior funding and organization.
A gap in Virginia
One dark spot on that plan is Virginia, which also votes on Super Tuesday, but where Gingrich failed to collect the necessary signatures to get on the ballot. In a state with a deeply conservative Republican electorate, where Gingrich was widely expected to be competitive, it was a huge blow.
“That’s the one state where we frankly messed up in,” Gingrich said at his news conference Saturday. “I’ve been pretty honest about that. We did the wrong thing. We hired the wrong person.”
Gingrich is also focused on early voting — making a stop this week in Ohio, where early voting is set to begin in advance of Super Tuesday.
His strategists are also lobbying two networks — Fox News and ABC — to add debates to the schedule between now and March. At his news conference Saturday, Gingrich said of Romney: “I look forward very much to opportunities to debate him.” It is not lost on the campaign that Gingrich’s success this cycle has depended largely on his strong debate performances, but none are scheduled for most of February, and that is widely viewed as a disadvantage for him.
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