The same is likely to be the case in South Carolina, where the terrain could easily shift depending on the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Gingrich has momentum in Iowa but little organization. Romney has the remnants of his 2008 organization and has been working to mobilize them. But in Iowa, Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is also a force, and three other candidates — Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Michele Bachmann and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania — are working the state hard.
New Hampshire is Romney’s firewall, but the former Massachusetts governor’s lead there appears to be shrinking. On Wednesday, Romney’s campaign mailed fliers to Republican voters designed to show the broad support he has from the state’s Republican officials. He will return there Sunday for another event.
What gives Romney’s team pause is that New Hampshire voters historically don’t pick a candidate until a few days before the primary. “There’s a high percentage that will wait and think about what Iowa did, and then it’s like, okay, now I have to pay the bill and decide,” Romney adviser Tom Rath said.
Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. has long hoped to be a spoiler to Romney in New Hampshire, but he has yet to gain significant traction.
Romney advisers see Gingrich as a flawed candidate because of his long record. But with the voting in Iowa less than a month away, some GOP strategists say Romney and his team cannot take count on Gingrich to bring about his own demise, as others in the race have done.
“I don’t think Boston will make any assumption that a candidate will self-destruct,” said Alex Gage, a Republican strategist who was part of the Romney campaign four years ago. “They are smarter than that. They will challenge him.”
Kevin Madden, another ex-Romney adviser who remains an informal member of the team, laid out two possible lines of contrast. Romney has previewed one: the contrast between a Washington politician and someone with a business background. Gingrich has countered by saying Romney has been running for office off and on since 1994.
The other contrast is one of temperament and style. “It’s a choice between teaching America or leading America,” Madden said. “Newt views the job as a lectern of sorts, while the governor is much more focused on a potential presidency that would confront the enormous challenges we face related to the economy, fixing it and getting the nation back on track and creating jobs again.”
Joe Gaylord, who is a longtime adviser to Gingrich but is not part of the campaign team, said Romney will have trouble selling himself to the party’s rank and file. “The problem Mitt has is how to stop the Gingrich rise, and to know him [Romney] is not to love him,” he said. “His closing arguments are no more appealing than his last six years. Therefore, his only option is to go negative, which will backfire.”
Gaylord said that Gingrich needs to keep his coalition motivated to assure that it turns out to vote and that he needs enough money “to remind voters why they like him.”
Gingrich met for two hours Wednesday with a large group of conservatives, fielding a series of tough questions. Amy Kremer, one of the invitees and the chairwoman of Tea Party Express, said Gingrich was asked about past views on climate change and health care and about his rocky personal life, which includes a long-term extramarital affair with his third and current wife, Callista Gingrich.
“People seemed very receptive to what he was saying,” she said. “There were some tough questions that were asked, but he stood up there and answered the questions and appeared to be honest and truthful.”
Mike DuHaime, a top political adviser to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Romney supporter, summed up the prevailing view among strategists toward Romney’s campaign.
“This is going to be a tough fight,” DuHaime said. “It always was going to be. The wrong thing to do at this point would be to panic and prematurely deviate from the plan.” But he added, “I think they should, and will, begin to contrast with Newt fairly soon to slow his momentum.”
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