LAS VEGAS —
The battle for the Republican presidential nomination always moves first through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and lately Nevada. But before the 2012 candidates ever get to those states, they have been forced to run through an unexpectedly significant proving ground: nationally televised debates.
The GOP contenders will meet here Tuesday night for their fifth exchange since Labor Day and their eighth of the year. Once considered forums that only occasionally had a real effect on a nomination battle, the debates this year have been the defining feature of the contest.
“For the first time in decades, primary debates aren’t a sideshow, as candidates are using them as a major platform in lieu of early TV ads to project their ideas, personalities and candidacies,” said Jonathan Collegio, communications director for the GOP group American Crossroads. “Campaigns have been smart to figure out that with all the increasing news coverage, a few strong debate performances are worth more than millions on early TV ads, and a weak appearance is worth more than a book” of opposition research.
Debates have played a bigger role in part because the competition in the early states has been so splintered. Four years ago, for example, candidates were organizing extensively in Iowa and New Hampshire, and spending money on ads there. This year, there is nothing comparable in those states. In Iowa, it’s not even clear how many contenders will compete.
To some strategists, debates — which, after all, are only one aspect of campaigns and only one measure of the skills a president needs — have hijacked the process.
“The problem is that the primary election has become almost solely about debates, which has completely overwhelmed the campaigns in a never-ending avalanche of logistics related to requests, scheduling, qualifying and preparation,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a media adviser to President George W. Bush.
The most obvious evidence of the debates’ impact is the change in fortunes for Texas Gov. Rick Perry. He surged to the top of opinion polls after joining the race in August and has watched his support erode after several mediocre debate performances. Were it not for the forums, Perry might still be neck and neck with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Instead, he is in third place.
In contrast, Romney, through a series of strong performances, has used the forums to solidify position and, more important, to try to convince the sizable number of Republicans who are still skeptical of him that he would be the party’s strongest candidate against President Obama.
“The debates have kind of been a testing ground for a bunch of people not well known by the potential voters,” said Ed Rollins, who was Rep. Michele Bachmann’s campaign manager earlier this year. “There is a shifting group of tea party/conservative voters who are reacting to ‘I like him/I don’t’ rationale, and they are still making up their minds who they are going to vote for.”
In past campaigns, single debates have sometimes been significant. In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale helped turn back a stiff challenge from Gary Hart with his famous “Where’s the beef?” comment.
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