CINCINNATI
First impressions are important in politics, and no one has introduced himself better in the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination than businessman Herman Cain.
Cain has surged in just about every national or state poll this month, to the point that he is now in a virtual tie with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who many consider the front-runner. The latest CBS-New York Times poll put Cain ahead of Romney, though within the margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio voters showed him narrowly ahead of Romney. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, once seen as the strongest challenger to Romney, ran fifth in both surveys.
Cain is not the first Republican challenging Romney to see an abrupt increase in his support. Perry experienced the same thing when he joined the contest in August and declared himself the authentic conservative in the race. Before that, Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) suddenly looked like a force after a strong performance in her first two debates.
Cain’s rise has been all the more surprising, however, because it has come after a series of debate performances, not just a single memorable moment in his campaign, after longer exposure to Republican voters, and despite some gaffes and mistakes. The Gallup organization reported this week that Cain is still the most positively viewed of the GOP candidates, by a wide margin.
The questions many Republicans are now asking: What is behind his sudden success? And can it last? Two hours of revealing conversation among a dozen Ohioans at a focus group here Monday night suggested answers to both.
Pollster Peter Hart moderated the discussion, the first in a series of 2012 focus groups he will conduct for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. Like any focus group, this one did not represent a scientific sample of the electorate. But in the context of recent polls, the participants brought into sharper relief the reasons that Cain has surged, and the obstacles that remain.
Moving at a rapid pace, Hart coaxed from the group of Republicans, Democrats and independents their feelings about the state of the country (gloomy), their view of Washington (totally negative), their assessment of President Obama (generally disappointed, even among most of those who backed him) and what they are looking for in 2012.
What was most striking was the genuine interest expressed in Cain and his candidacy. Time and again he rose to the top of the conversation about the Republican candidates. He was described in far more positive terms than either Perry or Romney. When Hart asked the group who intrigued them most right now, no one came close to Cain in the number of mentions.
Confirming Gallup polls, Cain was viewed as the most likable of the candidates, a people person, a hard-working businessman, a potential problem-solver and someone who many said would be a good neighbor. “He’s Main Street,” said Becky Leighty, a Republican. “He’s not Wall Street, and he’s not a politician.”
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