Meanwhile, three former front-runners were struggling to regain their footing, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich at 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 11 percent and Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) at 7 percent.
Caucuses are notoriously difficult to predict, given the fact that they require voters to venture out on a winter night and spend an evening arguing politics with their neighbors, but the Register’s late poll has had a strong record of foreshadowing the results.
In recent days, the candidates’ arguments have pitted voters’ pragmatism against their passions, with Romney representing the safe, establishment-approved pick and his rivals vying to be the conservative alternative.
“This is a process not just of putting your name or your hand next to someone who you kind of like. It’s also selecting who our nominee ought to be, who you think could beat Barack Obama,” Romney told a crowd of hundreds Thursday afternoon as he stood on a chair in the faux “Music Man” set in Mason City.
But on Saturday, as Santorum addressed about 50 people outside a library in Indianola, he insisted: “I understand they’re all saying who can win and cannot. Trust your own heart. Trust your head. Trust your gut. And vote for who you think is best.”
Among the serious caucus contenders, only Paul was missing. He and his senator son, Rand Paul of Kentucky, will be back Monday to launch a five-county tour.
Ron Paul has lately found himself at the top of polls, joining a procession of contenders — some credible, others less so — who have soared and fallen, often within a matter of weeks.
Some have stumbled, spectacularly. Others have been pushed. Gingrich was hit by almost $3 million in negative advertising in Iowa from a Romney-aligned super PAC — an outside group barred from coordinating with his campaign.
The volatility reflects Republicans’ fervor to pick their strongest nominee against a vulnerable president and the dissatisfaction and mistrust many conservatives, especially those who align with the tea party movement, feel toward Romney.
Ralph Davey, 60, a retiree from Manly who came out to hear Gingrich speak at the local shopping mall last week, has been going back and forth over whether to support him or Romney.
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