Keystone XL pipeline application rejected by Obama administration, will it hurt his reelection chances?

Now, this doesn’t mean the pipeline is dead and buried. TransCanada will reportedly be allowed to reapply for permits once it comes up with an alternative pipeline route that doesn’t run through Nebraska’s Sandhills. This will delay the project further, because the company probably will have to grind through the permitting process all over again, but it’s possible that the company could eventually win approval. (TransCanada’s share price plunged when rumors of the rejection first emerged, but the stock now seems to be slowly recovering.)

Environmentalists are, understandably, hailing this as a big victory. They had argued, among other things, that developing the carbon-intensive tar sands would be an enormous setback in the fight against global warming. (University of Chicago climate scientist Raymond Pierrehumbert has detailed just how much carbon is locked beneath Alberta’s Athabasca oil sands field, although note that it would take many centuries to burn all of that oil at current extraction rates.)

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 The controversial Keystone XL pipeline has been under review for more than three years. Environmental groups have argued that the extraction of oil sands contributed to climate changes and the pipeline itself posed leak risks. Supporters of the pipeline say that it will create jobs and enhance energy security. Here’s a look at some of the key players in the pipeline plan and the protests against it.

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House Speaker John Boehner says President Barack Obama is breaking his promise to create jobs by rejecting a plan to build an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas. (Jan. 18)

Many analysts have speculated that Obama’s decision to reject the pipeline proposal will hurt his chances of reelection in November and will open him to further GOP criticism over energy policy. As Chris Cillizza reported :

Judging from the reaction in the immediate aftermath of the decision, you might assume that the Keystone pipeline will mark a seminal moment in President Obama’s 2012 re-election race.

But there are at least three reasons to think it won’t.

1. Regular people don’t care: While the Keystone pipeline is a HUGE deal in the environmental community — there were concerns that the oil might leach out along the way and that it would have run through a protected habitat in Nebraska — it’s simply not an issue that has broken through with the average person.

There is no — we repeat no — credible polling on how many people are even aware of the pipeline (or the debate over it), a fact that suggests that it’s not penetrated anywhere close to broad public awareness. (There is polling galore about virtually everything that any significant group of people care about these days.)

Republicans have and will continue to argue that whether or not people know anything about the Keystone pipeline specifically, it’s a stand in for an administration more focused on their environmental base rather than creating jobs. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, said the Keystone decision “shows a president who once again has put politics ahead of sound policy.”

Maybe. But Keystone seems like a very minor point in that overall argument that may not persuade people. After all, if you think the president is doing his best to turn the economy around, does him vetoing an oil pipeline you have never heard of change your mind?

In short: If you care about the issue, you really care. But most people don’t.

2. Philosophical not political: Yes, environmental groups — a key part of the Democratic base — badly wanted the Keystone pipeline stopped. But organized labor, another foundational bloc of the Democratic base, wanted the pipeline approved in order to create jobs.

That split within the party’s base will allow President Obama to frame the decision as one not motivated by partisanship — since he went against labor — but rather driven by genuine concerns about the environmental impact the pipeline could have.

Independents — the key voting bloc in 2012 — may in fact react positively to the principle over politics pitch the President will make on this issue.

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