Over the past few months, Iowa has embraced and then rejected four charismatic front-runners: Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Perry, Gingrich and pizza executive Herman Cain.
Now, the state seems set to split its vote among three candidates chosen, instead, for the ideas they represent.
With an unemployment rate hovering around six percent, Iowa's economy has fared better than most states', but the economy is still the issue that most concerns voters in the Hawkeye State.
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For Romney, those are steadiness and electability. For Paul, they are small government and personal liberty. And Santorum’s appeal is based on his socially conservative views on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
On Monday, the case for Santorum was made by surprise guests: the Duggar family, who have won reality-show fame because they have 19 children. Jim Bob Duggar, a former supporter of evangelical favorite Mike Huckabee, arrived in Polk City, Iowa, with 12 of his children in tow.
And he brought something the Santorum campaign hadn’t had until that point: a bus. The candidate’s shoestring operation had previously required him to trek around in a supporter’s pickup truck.
The Duggars’ massive white coach, parked outside a coffee shop where Santorum held an event Monday, said “Rick Santorum for President.”
“The mistake we made was the whole political candidate field was splintered last time,” Duggar said of 2008, when Huckabee won Iowa but could not translate the win to a national nomination.
“We’re calling on the Christian people throughout the United States to get behind Rick Santorum now, and don’t splinter the vote. Get behind a true conservative with a proven track record,” Duggar said.
The evidence of Santorum’s recent surge was obvious: The overwhelming crush of media at the Polk City stop included reporters from Italy and Australia. Dozens of actual voters — who two weeks ago probably could have snagged a private audience with Santorum — were now pressed out of the restaurant and stood outside in the cold. “I’m actually from Polk City,” said one to another as he was unable to squeeze his way inside. “Yeah, we don’t count,” the other responded.
Despite the sardine-like, fire-hazard quality of the crowd, Santorum followed a pattern established through 360 previous Iowa events. He took every question asked by voters (“One more question,” he said after speaking for about 30 minutes. “No?” he said, spotting more hands. “Two? Three more questions.”)
And he offered lengthy and at times in-depth responses. He said that his first executive order as president would be to ban federal funding for abortion and that American citizens accused of terrorism should have access to lawyers and courts, and he promised to push for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.
A few miles to the south, the two Pauls held a rally in the lobby of the downtown Marriott in Des Moines. The people in the packed ballroom included libertarians, disaffected Democrats, antiwar liberals, small-government conservatives, antiabortion activists.
“To me, he’s my Noah,” said Sharlene Dunlap of Des Moines. “He’s been saying there’s a flood coming for 30 years.”
On stage, Rand Paul said his father is the right man for these big-government times.
“Anybody here want their government to mind their own business?” Paul said, as the crowd erupted with a singular “Yeah!”
It took Ron Paul 30 years to matter in Iowa. Yet his son is already on the map in a big way — he is the first tea party senator. Which causes some to wonder where he might be headed next.
“Rand Paul is a chip off the old block; he stands for the same things Ron Paul stands for,” said David Kaniuk of Pleasant Hill. “If Rand Paul wanted to go for president, I would look into supporting him.”
And out came the father, refreshed and ready after a 36-hour break from the trail.
“Tomorrow is a very important day,” Paul said. “It’s small in numbers, big in importance.”
In the eastern part of the state, Romney began his day with a rally in a gymnasium in Davenport. He was joined by his wife, Ann, plus three of his five sons and his brother, Scott.
All hammered home the message that has helped Romney gain ground in Iowa.The main goal is beating Obama in November, they said. And Romney is the man to do it.
“I sense something happening as we’ve been going across Iowa,” Ann Romney told the crowd. “I sense a feeling, a coalescing, a momentum or whatever it is you want to call it, around Mitt. And I think people are starting to figure out that this is the guy that is going to beat Barack Obama.”
The biggest question of Tuesday night might not be who wins — Romney, Paul and Santorum would all gain momentum from a top-three finish — but who loses. And how badly.
For limping candidates such as Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann, a dismal showing could set off a chain reaction of bad news. Lower fundraising. Less advertising. And other disappointments in the upcoming primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Both Perry and Bachmann had relatively light schedules on Monday: three stops for Perry, two for Bachmann. Gingrich will have four events, including two in Davenport, where Romney made his case earlier Monday.
Staff writers Amy Gardner, Felicia Sonmez and Philip Rucker contributed to this report.
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