Every day that the other Republican candidates struggle to consolidate the evangelical conservatives who could form a decisive voting bloc against Romney here, the temptation to go all-in in Iowa grows for Romney’s strategists in Boston. Competing aggressively here is risky, and while that decision could be rewarded with an unexpected win, it also would raise the stakes such that a second- or third-place finish could prove damaging.
For the candidate — a business consultant who soberly makes decisions based not on emotion but on data and more data — there remains what one close adviser called “an internal hesitation.”
Whatever Romney decides to do in Iowa will be one of the key strategic decisions he will have to make as a candidate, and it may offer some clues about his decision-making process if he is elected president.
“The question is: Can he pivot now to take advantage of a huge opportunity — an issue environment that’s fertile and a field that’s weak?” said Douglas Gross, who chaired Romney’s 2008 Iowa campaign but has not signed up again in part because Romney has yet to make a heavy commitment to campaigning in the state.
“He’d have to swoop in here,” Gross added, “but I think he’ll continue to play it as he is. He’s a cautious candidate. He’s data-driven. He’s highly analytical and highly systematic, and he doesn’t have natural political instincts to follow his gut. There are times the data’s not enough.”
During his first run in 2008, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, perfectly executed his Iowa strategy. He spent more than $10 million here, filling the airwaves and organizing on the ground, caucus precinct by caucus precinct. The trouble was that it just wasn’t enough. Romney finished a distant second to former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and left Iowa personally scorned, believing that Christian conservative voters had turned on him because of his Mormon faith.
This time, Romney is husbanding his resources, containing his expectations, hiring just five aides and relying largely on a volunteer network of his 2008 supporters. He has visited the state just three times since launching his campaign in June, and those visits have been carefully choreographed. During Monday’s trip, he delivered speeches at a sheet-
metal manufacturing plant in Dubuque and the local water company’s offices in Davenport. Romney, clad in Tommy Bahama blue jeans and a blue plaid work shirt, took no questions from voters — nor did he mingle in coffee shops and churches as his opponents often do.
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