Will Romney-Gingrich battle lead to costly split in the GOP?

Some Republicans have drawn comparisons to the 1964 contest between conservative Barry Goldwater and liberal Nelson Rockefeller, a bitter battle that badly split the GOP, led to a landslide defeat for Goldwater and started the conservative takeover of the Republican Party. That comparison is overdrawn. Romney, although distrusted by many conservatives, evokes little of the hatred on the right that Rockefeller did.

Other analysts see parallels with the 1980 Democratic primary between President Jimmy Carter and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.). That campaign was both personal and ideological and carried on to the Democratic National Convention. It took years for the wounds to heal among those involved, although Carter and Kennedy never fully reconciled.

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Behind in the polls the day before the Florida Republican presidential primary, Gingrich criticizes Romney's negative advertising and urges supporters to help get out the vote. (Jan. 30)

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GOP PRIMARY TRACKER: The race for delegates

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In 1976, Ronald Reagan took his fight against President Gerald Ford to the GOP convention, a battle that contributed to Ford’s defeat by Carter that fall and that made it possible for Reagan to become the Republican nominee four years later.

Republicans are cautiously hopeful that the Romney-Gingrich contest will not devolve into something that bitter and lasting, although the increasingly personal nature of it could make it more difficult for the two men to reunite when the race ends.

Interviews with a series of strategists Monday produced a consensus that, however acrimonious the competition appears now, it is unlikely to result in deep divisions once there is a nominee. Obama, they say, will unite the party more than the Gingrich-Romney battle will divide it.

“Once this contest comes to a de facto close, the usual party-unifying steps will be put into effect,” said Pete Wehner, who was an official in the George W. Bush administration. “Some of those on the losing side will swear that they will go to their grave angry at the winner. But calmer heads will prevail, and by the time of the GOP convention, you’ll see the kind of unity that right now seems almost impossible to envision.”

That might be what happens, eventually. For now, prominent Republicans and leading conservatives are taking sides along clear lines of a divide within the party. Those choices have as much to do with reservations about Romney as a true conservative as they do with love for Gingrich.

Romney has regained his footing in Florida with an aggressive strategy. If he wins Tuesday, the next move will be up to Gingrich. How will he respond? The lineup of contests in February favors Romney. The next debate won’t be held until Feb. 22, a long dry spell for Gingrich, who has thrived on such forums.

As he closed out his campaign here on Monday, Gingrich was struggling to find a way to make himself the rightful heir to the insurgency that powered Republicans to victory in 2010. Instead, he remains fixed on winning a debate over who is the real Reaganite in the race. Until he makes that pivot, the question will remain whether he can convert conservative resistance to Romney into a true battle between the establishment and the tea party movement.