Those reports were a further jolt to a president whose overall approval has risen in the wake of the killing of Osama bin Laden but whose approval on the economy and the deficit have been, so far, stubbornly resistant to movement. Though described as a “bump in the road,” the latest figures on the economy are likely to force Obama’s advisers to reevaluate how they want to address the issue that continues to dominate the public mood and political environment.
The president and his team have looked to Ronald Reagan’s presidency as a possible template for their reelection fortunes. During his first two years in office, Reagan weathered a deep recession that sent unemployment even higher than that which the country has experienced during the current downturn.
In December 1982, 23 months before Reagan’s reelection, the jobless rate hit its recession peak of 10.8 percent. By summer 1984, it was, as the admakers put it, “Morning in America.” Unemployment stood at 7.5 percent — still high enough to cause pain for millions of Americans but better enough to give people a sense of optimism.
The jobless rate began dropping in early 1983, though slowly through the first several months of the year. Still, by July it had fallen from its peak to 9.4 percent. By the opening of the election year, it had dropped more than a full percentage point to 8 percent.
What caused those rapid declines was strong economic growth. In the first quarter of 1983, gross domestic product rose 5.1 percent, and that was just a hint of what was to come. From there, growth rates accelerated — to 9.3 percent in the second quarter, followed by quarterly increases of 8.1, 8.5, 8 and then 7.1 percent in the second quarter of 1984.
Growth slowed the rest of the year to about half that rate, but the political impact had registered with the voters, leading to Reagan’s landslide reelection victory.
Unemployment remained at 9 percent or more for 19 consecutive months during Reagan’s presidency. By comparison, the jobless rate has been at 9 percent or more for 23 of the past 25 months of Obama’s presidency. Sluggish growth rates are a principle reason — and a reason for concern at the White House. The road to recovery still appears to be a long one.
The president has used two messages to deal with the political problem the economic realities present. One has been to talk up successes in an effort to boost public confidence. He was in Toledo on Friday to hail the rebound in the automobile industry and to point to his decision to bail out General Motors and Chrysler as an economic success story. The unemployment report, however, provided a jarring backdrop.
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