The election-year State of the Union delivered by George H.W. Bush in many ways was the most ambitious, containing a literal one-through-seven list of new initiatives to improve the economy. But scholars say that it failed to present a story of his presidency persuasive enough to overcome doubts about where he was taking the country.
Like Obama, Bush was able to announce enormous changes abroad that had occurred since his last State of the Union, most notably that “Communism died this year.”
Obama will be able to describe the revolutions of the Arab Spring, which has brought a more democratic, if less certain, political environment in the Middle East. He has also overseen the departure of all U.S. troops from Iraq, ending a long unpopular war.
But Bush, like Obama, faced an economy in crisis and deep doubts about his ability to fix it. He blamed Congress for its lack of help, and announced, as Obama has, a series of steps he would take on his own to boost the economy.
Presidential scholars say the list, while amounting to serious policy, came off as disjointed to many Americans, who did not embrace his argument for another term. Obama hopes to avoid that problem.
“He will float some ideas, then will lay out the details in the coming weeks, which likely says more about the nature of the media than it does about this president,” the senior administration official said, suggesting Obama will have to remind voters repeatedly what he has proposed. “The shelf life of an idea is much shorter in the era of Twitter.”
Outlining a defiant defense of his first term, George W. Bush used his 2004 State of the Union to frame the terms of his reelection effort, telling Congress that “we can go forward with confidence and resolve, or we can turn back to the dangerous illusion that terrorists are not plotting and outlaw regimes are no threat to us.”
Obama, too, has echoed that choice between past and present, only in economic terms.
In Osawatomie, he declared the failure of trickle-down economics, criticizing Republicans of “collective amnesia” for endorsing tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. He warned about this “make-or-break moment for the middle class,” clearly aligning himself with their interests.
But Galston warns that Obama has to be careful using too much of that combative tone in a State of the Union address, even in an election year.
“You still have to present yourself as president of all the people, especially Obama, because that was the core promise,” Galston said. “The president isn’t just a candidate for the presidency, he’s the president. There are advantages that an incumbent has, including the State of the Union venue, but they can be squandered.”
wilsons@washpost.com
Polling analyst Scott Clement contributed to this report.
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