Think about what Palin is trying to perfect as the most unconventional of politicians. She has the ability to connect with people personally. She has, as one Republican said long ago, the ability to be interesting. Not everyone in the GOP field can make that claim. Although she has done little to convince her many doubters that she could or should be president, she retains a loyal and passionate following.
Beyond that, she has shown everyone else in politics the power of social networking and how it can be used to nurture a political base or shake up the debates on issues of the moment. She also can amplify her views with interviews on Fox News, where she remains a paid contributor. If not a seamless operation — or a foolproof way to run a campaign — it suggests that the old ways of doing business politically are not necessarily the only ways.
Palin knows that if she were to run for president, she would be surrounded at every turn by the media — a pack that she would think was out to stop her. She doubts that would help her get her message out. What she may be trying to determine on this bus tour is whether she can keep reporters at bay enough to interact with people and perhaps project a message. So far, the jury is out.
Alex Castellanos, a GOP strategist, said Palin may have already decided that, although her goal is to defeat President Obama, she is not the candidate to do so. Instead, she is choosing a role between “everything and nothing,” a position as an energizer. Her challenge, he said, is not whether to run but whether to lead. She is now the embodiment of Republican grievances, but that goes only so far.
“She just repeats what Republicans already believe, in an emotional and energetic way, true,” Castellanos said in an e-mail message. “But when she leaves, republican voters are left right where they were standing when she entered the room. She doesn’t take us anywhere. Until she does, her stature will continue to diminish, not because she is not running, but because she is not leading.”
In New Hampshire, Republican activists are divided about a possible candidacy. They wonder whether the role she is playing is the one best suited to her talents. Walt Shakford, a retiree who turned out to see Bachmann on Monday, said, “I would rather see her as a spokesperson for our politicians than a leader of our party.”
Palin may continue to play out this string, knowing she commands an audience. She has said this week that she does not think the Republican field is set. She hints that there is still plenty of time for her to get in, should she choose to do so. She may never say she is not running for president, assuming that at some point everyone will know it is too late. At that point, the story will become: Will she endorse? Palin as kingmaker — that, too, could go on for months.
Palin is not a political strategist, according to those who know her. She is a visceral politician who operates on instinct. The question is whether she really wants to play a role as a leader and a politician. That is the hard decision she faces.
Staff writers Rachel Weiner in Philadelphia and Sandhya Somashekhar in New Hampshire contributed to this report.
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