A couple of minutes later, the candidate’s voice, coming from a telephone, floated out of the speakers in the parking lot. “Hi, everyone. This is Michele Bachmann,” she said, and soon the lot was filled with hearty applause.
As a critical week begins in the Republican presidential contest, the broadening perception in Iowa is that enthusiasm for Pawlenty has sagged recently, imperiling his candidacy, while Bachmann has soared to front-runner status here. There are growing doubts as well about the Pawlenty campaign’s organizational efforts, once regarded as its chief strength.
But two upcoming events offer Pawlenty the chance to rebound dramatically against the Minnesota congresswoman, to shore up enthusiasm and to show off his vaunted organization.
First, on Thursday night, the two will take part in a high-stakes debate alongside a field of rivals that will include former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the national front-runner; former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum; congressman Ron Paul of Texas; businessman Herman Cain; and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr.
Two days later will come the Ames Straw Poll, an early contest that will gauge enthusiasm and serve as a test for a campaign’s organizational skills. Anything less than a second-place finish for Pawlenty may have a dire effect on his ability to woo contributors for a campaign having difficulty securing big-ticket donors. And although some of Pawlenty’s backers think he can still win here, others do not rule out the possibility that he could sink to third or fourth place, behind Paul, Cain or Santorum.
His decline in Iowa has less to do with any policy stance than merely a hardening perception among detractors — and a worry among supporters — that he is not as charismatic or rhetorically tough as some of his rivals, particularly Bachmann.
One moment in his campaign has crystallized all the skepticism about him: In June, during a New Hampshire debate of the GOP contenders, Pawlenty — who previously had been deriding the Massachusetts health-care plan forged during Romney’s term as governor there — declined an invitation from the moderator to engage Romney on the issue.
“I think it really hurt him,” said Iowa state Sen. Randy Feenstra, a prominent Pawlenty supporter. “The question was served up to him like a softball and he just whiffed. I think people were looking for someone to come out and be a leader in that moment and he didn’t do that.”
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