Two weeks before Iowans cast the first votes of the 2012 election cycle, Republicans nationally are sharply divided over whom their party’s presidential nominee should be, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich locked in a dead-even race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Gingrich and Romney are each favored by 30 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Running behind them is Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), whose libertarian philosophy has attracted a strong following. He stands at 15 percent, about double his tally in an early November poll. All other active candidates are in the single digits.
The survey shows President Obama receiving his highest approval rating since March, with the exception of a brief rise after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Although most Americans continue to disapprove of the president’s performance on the economy, the number who disapprove of his overall performance has dipped below 50 percent for the first time this fall.
Romney has edged higher in the GOP contest, breaking out of the 20s for the first time since July. Gingrich has jumped greatly since early November, in part because of businessman Herman Cain’s decision to suspend his candidacy.
Gingrich peaked at an even higher level and started to fade in other national surveys conducted between the Post-ABC polls, suggesting that he may have lost some momentum recently. He was on the defensive in the final debates before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses and has come under sharp attack by Romney in a series of media interviews. He also is the target of hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative ads in Iowa from his major rivals and their allies, all of which could be taking a toll.
Romney has a 10-point advantage on the key question of who Republicans think is most likely to beat Obama. Romney also leads Gingrich when it comes to dealing with issue No. 1, the economy. Gingrich counters with a big advantage on experience: By about 2 to 1, more see him as having the best résumé for the White House and as being the most qualified to be commander in chief.
In other ways, the two are evenly matched. They are tied at 23 percent on which best reflects the core values of the Republican Party. They run about equal on which “is closer to you on issues.” Romney and Gingrich are also tied among those who are the strongest supporters of the tea party movement, and draw almost evenly among men and women and across age groups.
But there are differences. Gingrich has a wide advantage — 36 percent to 22 percent — over Romney among those who consider themselves “very conservative.” The former House speaker edges Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, among those without college degrees and among those with annual household incomes under $75,000. Romney has small advantages among those with more formal education and higher incomes.
Although a big majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents across the country say they support either Romney or Gingrich, only about a third of potential voters say they are firmly committed to any one contender. Many of those voters pick someone other than Romney or Gingrich when asked about the candidates’ attributes and their capacity to handle key issues.
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