Cain picks up where Perry has faded.
Seventy percent of those who saw the debates say the more they learn about Cain, the more they like him. Among tea party supporters, Cain’s support has surged from 5 percent to 30 percent in a month. The businessman, who scored a surprise win at the Florida straw poll, now has the edge among solid tea partyers.
Tea party Republicans are also enormously confident a Republican will prevail next year, regardless of who the nominee may be: 91 percent of strong tea party backers sense a GOP victory over Obama in 2012. Whether it is the battered economy or the president’s sliding ratings, Republicans overall are far more likely than Democrats to see victory ahead in the general election, 83 percent to 58 percent.
When Republicans were asked to evaluate Romney against Perry directly, they split about evenly on five issues, with the former Massachusetts governor holding slight edges on several, including issue No. 1: the economy. Perry counters with a slim seven-point edge on health care, perhaps a sign of continuing discomfort with Romney’s support for the Massachusetts law that requires every individual to buy health coverage and was considered a model for the national plan signed into law by Obama.
Romney, Perry and all other announced candidates have said they would move to repeal Obama’s health-care law, something that two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaners say would make them more apt to support a candidate.
Romney has big – 20-point – advantages over Perry on two important questions: experience and electability. When asked who has the better experience to be president, Romney wins 50 to 30 percent.
A month ago, Perry appeared to have neutralized what had been a clear Romney advantage: a perception that he is the best positioned to defeat Obama in 2012. Now, 51 percent of Republicans say Romney has a better shot at winning than does Perry; 31 percent say so of Perry.
The new poll may in some ways bolster Republican hopefulness in general.
Obama’s approval rating — while not significantly different from a month ago — is at a new career low, his disapproval number at a new high. In all, 42 percent approve of the job he is doing, while 54 percent disapprove. Barely more than a third of independents give the president positive marks, as 60 percent now disapprove, a new high. For the first time, fewer than half of moderates approve of the way Obama is handling his job.
Of course, the president won’t have to run against a theoretical Republican. Among registered voters, he runs neck and neck with Romney, Perry and Christie. The president has a narrow edge on Perry among all adults. Cain was not tested in a hypothetical contest against Obama.
The telephone poll was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 2 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. Results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points; it is six points for the sample of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
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