Rick Santorum and the Huckabee trap

MANCHESTER, N.H. — No one has campaigned harder in New Hampshire this past week than Rick Santorum. But has the Republican former senator from Pennsylvania fallen into the same trap that ensnared Mike Huckabee four years ago?

There is something alluring about New Hampshire and its storied presidential primary. The gravitational pull of the state’s history, its tradition and the clutch of media that descend on the state during primary week can be irresistible, particularly to a dark-horse candidate who springs a surprise in Iowa.

Archive

• E-mail
• Twitter

Video

Rick Santorum's social agenda may have helped him win over evangelicals in Iowa, but it seems to be energizing his opponents in New Hampshire. (Jan. 6)

Graphic

GOP PRIMARY TRACKER: See which candidates are visiting the early states and where they focusing their time and resources.

More on this Topic

• Read more at PostPolitics
• Innovations | Meet the new political elite
• Romney’s business background questioned
• Romney, Huntsman tied in first N.H. vote

View all Items in this Story

• N.H. ballot order not a boon to Romney
• Lesser-known candidates get their quirky say
• Provocateurs take center stage at N.H. events
• On the trail, Gingrich veers from nice to nasty
• Romney: 'I like to be able to fire people who provide services to me'
• Fact Checker: Santorum and the K St. project
• Ron Paul convert wonders: What next?
• The Take: Santorum and the Huckabee trap
• Deja vu for New Hampshire polls?

But there is also the cruel reality that, for Santorum, South Carolina looms as a more crucial test for his candidacy. In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the clear favorite to win. The electorate here includes a smaller percentage of social and religious conservatives who were key to Santorum’s success in Iowa.

Would Santorum have been better off spending the bulk of his time since Iowa burrowing into South Carolina rather than New Hampshire? Four years ago, Huckabee won Iowa and was faced with a decision similar to the one Santorum confronted. The former Arkansas governor opted to make a play for New Hampshire (and later Michigan) rather than heading south to plant a flag in South Carolina. His reward? He finished a distant third, with just 11 percent of the vote.

When the Palmetto State voted a few weeks later, Huckabee narrowly lost to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), effectively ending his hopes of winning the GOP nomination. Former senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.), who had parked in South Carolina after Iowa and received enough votes there to destroy Huckabee’s chances of beating McCain, also hurt him.

It’s impossible to say whether the outcome would have been different had Huckabee spent more time in South Carolina. But the 11 percent he received in New Hampshire hardly provided the kind of springboard he needed, and the time he spent here and later in Michigan cost him precious days on the ground in South Carolina.

Santorum now faces the same issue. He rolled into New Hampshire last week with enthusiasm and confidence. His showing in Iowa, which far exceeded any expectations, made him the candidate in the spotlight, the Republican with the potential to grab the coveted designation as the conservative alternative to Romney.

Two things happened. His hopes of dominating the news coverage after Iowa hit a speed bump when Romney rolled out an endorsement from McCain. The McCain-Romney show turned out to be as compelling as the Santorum-on-a-roll story.

That, however, was a momentary problem and one out of Santorum’s control. More important was the absence of a clear message for the New Hampshire voters. Santorum has been diligent about treating the state’s voters with respect. His town hall meetings have been textbook examples of a candidate submitting himself to question after question after question, but they’ve made it more difficult for Santorum to deliver a singular message — especially because he is not spending money on television ads.