The candidates are refusing to participate in a potential Univision debate slated for Jan. 29, two days before Florida’s primary, citing a dispute between network executives and Rubio’s office over a July report on the 1987 drug-trafficking arrest of Rubio’s brother-in-law.
Rubio’s office said it was a “tabloid” story and unsuccessfully pushed for Univision executives to kill it. Two months later, a Miami Herald report cited unnamed network staff members and Rubio’s office accusing Univision of a quid pro quo, offering to soften or kill the story in exchange for Rubio agreeing to appear on the network’s Sunday public affairs show “Al Punto.”
Univision denied the charge. But after the report, a group of Rubio allies called on the GOP candidates to boycott the debate. The top candidates agreed, meaning they will be spared a potential grilling on immigration by the network’s high-profile anchor, Jorge Ramos, an advocate for more liberal immigration laws.
But the dispute creates ill will between Rubio, who could become the most powerful Hispanic political figure in the country, and one of the most cherished Hispanic institutions in the United States — and one that happens to be based in his home town.
“One of the big questions of 2012 is whether putting Marco Rubio on the ticket can help the GOP make up lost ground with Latino voters,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of the pro-Democratic group NDN, which analyzes the Hispanic vote. “Despite being Hispanic, looking at his overall record . . . he seems remarkably ill-suited to be the one reaching out to the largely Mexican migrant community in the key battleground states.”
Several Hispanic Republicans and other experts on Latino politics said in interviews that Rubio remains a potent force in the GOP. His presence on the party’s ticket could inspire enough ethnic pride to make up for cultural or policy differences. But they said there is no guarantee.
“He would deliver Florida,” home to the large and typically Republican-leaning Cuban American population, said Alfonso Aguilar, executive director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, a pro-GOP group that is planning to air ads in Western states geared toward Hispanic voters. “In Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, he can have an impact. But can he deliver the Latino vote in those states? No.”
Some Republicans consider Rubio such a promising new star that they funded a poll last month that tested, among other things, the senator’s image among Hispanic voters in key presidential battlegrounds. The survey, by the group Resurgent Republic, found that most Hispanic voters outside Rubio’s home state aren’t familiar enough with him to express a view. But in Florida, it showed mixed results — with Obama viewed slightly more favorably than Rubio among Hispanics and the senator viewed favorably by just 42 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics.
Democrats predict that the numbers for Rubio would drop fast once more voters learned his views. Rubio’s allies say the survey shows that he could boost a party whose support among Latinos is sinking but that could probably win the presidency with just 40 percent of that electorate.
“Most Republican politicians would die for” his favorability rating among non-Cuban Hispanics, said Whit Ayers, the GOP pollster behind the survey, who worked for Rubio’s campaign in 2010.
Rubio has said he does not want to run for vice president. His spokesman, Alex Conant, declined to address that speculation. Instead, he reiterated the senator’s embrace of his heritage and his support for legal immigration.
“Sen. Rubio has always claimed to be both the son of immigrants and the son of exiles,” Conant said in an e-mail. “His family came to the country legally with the intention of staying permanently, but with the hope of someday returning to their homeland. They were unable to do that because of Castro, becoming exiles like many other Cuban-Americans.”
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