The Fix: Republican presidential contenders’ first real test begins on Memorial Day

For Huntsman, more than any other candidate in the field, the next 98 days will be essential in determining whether he is a contender or a pretender for the nomination as he seeks to turn buzz and solid staff hires into committed voters in early states.

“Electability is going to matter,” GOP consultant Alex Castellanos said. “That means, unless the field changes, only one of these three can win the nomination.”

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The rest of the field is largely jumbled at the moment, although Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), who is expected to announce her candidacy next month, is deserving of a special mention because many regard her as a potential winner of the Iowa caucuses. Most GOP observers think Bachmann lacks the capacity or message strength to build a win in Iowa into a broader push for the nomination, however.

The other question is whether former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) can recover from a disastrous start to become a legitimate factor in the race.

And then there are the candidates-in-waiting (or not). With polling suggesting that large numbers of Republican voters are unhappy with the current lineup, there is constant chatter about a late entrant swooping in and changing the calculus.

“There will be a flavor of the week from now until fall,” GOP strategist Matt McDonald said.

At the top of that list is former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who began a bus tour Sunday that is stoking speculation about her renewed interest. She has set not timetable for a 2012 decision, however, and even those close to her know little about her plans.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has opened the door on a bid, but his closest allies still cast doubt on the idea. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has remained adamant that he won’t run.

Ninety-eight days from now, Palin, Perry and the rest of the fence-sitters will either be in or out. Romney is likely to still be the front-runner on Labor Day, with Pawlenty’s status as the establishment alternative dependent on his fundraising and his showing in the Ames straw poll. Huntsman will have proved himself to be a boom or a bust by then. Gingrich will have bounced back — or not. Bachmann will be an Iowa front-runner or an also-ran.

Stay tuned. It’s going to be a doozy.