Now that the Republican presidential field has been effectively whittled to two, each of the front-runners has laid out a detailed plan to beat the other.
This much is clear: Whoever wins is going to win ugly.
RACE FOR DELEGATES: Stepping up to the GOP nomination
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Mitt Romney’s strategy calls for a slow, state-by-state accumulation of delegates to the Republican National Convention. In that process, he might not win the kind of enthusiasm that usually builds behind the party’s nominee.
But the former Massachusetts governor would win the numbers game, gaining the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination sometime before July.
Romney’s chief rival, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) has outlined his own, more unlikely strategy: He might not be able to reach that key delegate threshold, his aides said, but he hopes to keep the party so split that Romney can’t hit it, either.
In that scenario, the race would remain undecided until the GOP’s convention in August. Then — in the first brokered convention in 60 years — Santorum could win over individual delegates and snatch the nomination.
“The reality is simple: the Romney math doesn’t add up and he will have a very difficult time ever getting to a majority of the delegates,” Santorum’s campaign wrote in a memo to supporters, dated March 10. “The situation is only going to get worse for them and better for Rick Santorum as time passes. Simply put, time is on our side.”
So far, 26 states and four territories have voted in this Republican primary season. There are 26 contests to go, including in Puerto Rico and the District.
A few things have actually been settled. For one, it’s clear that Santorum has found a way to win on the cheap. For each delegate he has earned, his campaign and a pro-Santorum super PAC have spent about $17,500 on TV ads, according to data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group. For Romney, the equivalent figure is about $67,700.
It’s also become clear that Romney has the money to win expensively. He has accumulated 495 delegates, nearly double Santorum’s total of 252.
Even on Tuesday, when Santorum won primaries in Mississippi and Alabama, Romney finished the night with more new delegates. He got a share of the delegates in each Southern state and gained even more with wins in Hawaii and American Samoa.
Finally, after Tuesday it became clear that former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) is no longer a serious contender for the nomination. After losing on his Southern home turf, he is too far behind, with too few friendly states left to vote. Still, he has shown no intention of formally dropping out.
‘This is a process’
On Wednesday, Romney acknowledged that he has had trouble attracting conservative voters. But, he said, when he wins that crucial 1,144th delegate, that problem will take care of itself.
“Last night, I got more delegates than anybody else. This is a process of becoming the nominee. We’re pursuing that in an intelligent way,” Romney said in an interview on Fox News Channel. “Some who are very conservative may not be yet in my camp, but they will be when I become the nominee when I face Barack Obama.”
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