Whether Romney or Santorum wins, the road to the nomination will be ugly

In a memo released Wednesday, Romney’s aides reiterated what has become the central argument of his campaign: The math says nobody else can win.

“Santorum and Gingrich now trail Governor Romney by margins they cannot mathematically make up,” Romney adviser Rich Beeson wrote in a memo to reporters. “Senator Santorum is 255 delegates behind Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich is 373 delegates behind. In order to win, both Santorum and Gingrich need to start netting an impossible number of delegates to overtake Governor Romney.”

Graphic

RACE FOR DELEGATES: Stepping up to the GOP nomination
Click Here to View Full Graphic Story

RACE FOR DELEGATES: Stepping up to the GOP nomination

More from PostPolitics

On scandals -- real and imagined

On scandals -- real and imagined

THE FIX | At the moment, the three scandals consuming the Obama administration don't quite measure up to Watergate.

Holder’s claim on the ‘Fast and Furious’ criminal citation

Holder’s claim on the ‘Fast and Furious’  criminal citation

FACT CHECKER | Attorney General Eric Holder said a U.S. attorney made his own decision not to pursue a criminal prosecution of Holder. But he got that wrong.

Part 4: ‘Why don’t you just make yourself legal?’ | Immigration: Pathway to now

Part 4: ‘Why don’t you just make yourself legal?’ | Immigration: Pathway to now

VIDEO | The future remains uncertain for 11 million people living illegally in the U.S. Though immigration reform seems closer than it has ever been before, can Washington and the Obama administration effectively repair 30 years of broken policies?

Read more

By that logic, Romney will reach the required number of delegates no later than June 26, when Utah holds the last contest.

That would be an uncomfortable way to win. A long series of primary fights would drain Romney’s campaign treasury and could tarnish his image before a general election against Obama.

Already, Romney’s donors have grumbled that he doesn’t seem to be getting better as a campaigner.

“He just doesn’t connect. He doesn’t draw energy from his crowds,” one of Romney’s donors said Wednesday. The donor spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions within the campaign.

“Both Newt and Rick are passionate in that sense, whether you agree with what’s coming out of their mouths or not,” the donor said. “They say it with passion and conviction. And you are who you are — and that’s just not in Mitt Romney’s DNA.”

A convention fight

In Santorum’s strategy, Utah is not the end. In the scenario sketched out by his advisers, after that primary Romney would be ahead, but not with enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

So the GOP convention would begin without a winner.

At that point, Santorum would try to woo delegates who had supported Gingrich, as well as others who came to the convention unpledged to any candidate. With their help, he could pass Romney and win in later rounds of balloting.

No major party has tried such a thing since 1952. They much prefer their conventions to be pep rallies instead of brawls.

Still, experts said, this ugly kind of win is the only hope for Santorum.

“There’s hardly any logic there. But that’s the only play they have right now,” said Josh Putnam, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina who studies the Republican primary process.

Staff writer Nia-Malika Henderson contributed to this report.

Loading...

Comments

Add your comment
 
Read what others are saying About Badges