The 2008 election was a reminder of the demographic forces that are changing America and potentially the political balance in the country. The most diverse electorate in the nation’s history added to the favorable winds that pushed President Obama to victory. He will need the assistance of those shifts even more in 2012 if he is to avoid defeat.
Much has been made of the president’s unusual coalition in 2008 — huge turnout and overwhelming support from African Americans, the backing of Latinos, the energy of younger voters, the help from college-educated Americans and the role played by unmarried women. Part of Obama’s success was due to the excitement his candidacy generated among these groups four years ago, but part too owed simply to the realities of a nation changing in ways that are favorable to the Democrats.
The tension Obama and his advisers will confront next year is how much those inexorable demographic changes are able to overcome the effects of the economy on many of the voters who elected him four years ago and the backlash to his policies among many voters. Whatever the effect of campaign ads, candidate appearances and unforeseen events, the clash of these two underlying forces will be as important in determining who occupies the Oval Office in 2013.
Two analysts from the progressive Center for American Progress, Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin, have provided the most comprehensive examination to date of how those factors could affect the vote in 2012. The analysis is called “The Path to 270: Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election.”
The study examines whether the electorate in 2012 will be shaped more by the demographic changes coursing through the population, or by Republican enthusiasm to defeat the president coupled with Democratic apathy of voters hard hit by the economy and let down by Obama’s leadership.
“The stage is set for a showdown of demographics versus economics in the 2012 election,” they write. “Each side has clear strengths but also very serious weaknesses as they move into this showdown. Victory will likely go to the side most willing to acknowledge their weaknesses and attack them boldly. This will be no election for the faint-hearted.”
The 2008 electorate was 74 percent white and 26 percent minority. Given population shifts, the percentage of minorities is likely to be somewhat larger in 2012 — a key advantage for the president. Growth in the minority population, with Hispanics by far the fastest growing group in the country, was responsible for nearly all of the overall population growth in the country over the past decade, according to the 2010 Census.
As a result, Teixeira and Halpin estimate that minorities will account for at least two more percentage points in the 2012 electorate than they did in 2008. The question is whether Obama can maintain his roughly 80 percent support among minorities.
His advisers say they are confident that African American voters will continue to support him overwhelmingly and that they will again turn out to vote in very high numbers. Their confidence is backed up by much current polling.
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