Gardner now faces a most difficult decision. He could set his primary on Jan. 10, which would show a retreat from a position he outlined just a week ago. Or he could upend the entire calendar by moving New Hampshire’s primary to sometime the month before. For Gardner and his state, a strategic retreat, however unpalatable, would do far less damage to the future of the primary there than would a leap into December.
Neither state started this fight. Florida bears that responsibility. The Republican National Committee tried to establish an orderly flow to the caucuses and primaries that will determine the party’s presidential nominee. After considerable effort, officials set up a calendar that would have started a month later than in 2008 (February rather than January), and that was designed to reward states that held their contests later rather than earlier.
It was a fool’s errand. What RNC officials learned — as did Democratic National Committee officials four years ago — is that state pride and competition trump whatever threats or penalties the national parties can impose. Everyone wants an early opportunity to influence the nomination’s outcome, and nobody fears the consequences of running askew of the rules.
So it was Florida that started the dominoes falling by moving its primary to the last week in January. Florida only wanted to be the fifth state to hold a contest, which may not seem like an undue objective, given its place in past nomination battles. But by leapfrogging that far forward, the Sunshine State guaranteed the spectacle now playing out.
History and tradition give Iowa and New Hampshire the coveted opening slots in the calendar: Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, followed by the Granite State’s storied primary. Two other states also have been given exemptions to hold their contests ahead of the rest: South Carolina, whose influence on the outcome of the Republican nomination has often eclipsed Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s, and more recently Nevada, which was moved forward largely by the Democrats who wanted a Western state with labor and Latino influence to help round out their opening contests.
Once Florida moved its date, the four states with the authority to go early started to move as well. South Carolina set its primary for Jan. 21. Nevada picked Jan. 14 for its caucuses. Iowa this week set its caucuses for Jan. 3.
That has left New Hampshire with a dilemma. State law says not only that the New Hampshire primary must be the first primary in the nation but also that it should be seven days ahead of any similar contest. To Gardner, the person with sole authority to name the date of New Hampshire’s primary, that does not leave enough time for a comfortable gap between Iowa and New Hampshire (traditionally eight days but only five in 2008) and the required seven days between its primary and Nevada’s caucuses.
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