Will Barack Obama’s fate be written in the numbers?
A 513-point plunge for the Dow, followed a day later by a drop in the nation’s credit rating.
A look at the latest U.S. employment figures.
Home values worth one-third less than they were five years ago.
The share of working-age Americans in the labor force — at just 58 percent — lower than it has been since 1983.
Growth under 2 percent, so sluggish that a second dip into recession looks distinctly possible.
That kind of economic data amounts to a formidable headwind for any incumbent president hoping for a second term. And Democrats are worried that time could be running out to change the direction of the gale.
“The good news for the president is that the election isn’t taking place today,” said Democratic strategist Mark Mellman. “But if people look forward and see what they see today, it’s going to be difficult. The most important thing to do is change the circumstances on the ground, and that’s also the hardest thing to do.”
Campaigning in last year’s midterm elections, Obama argued over and over again that Republicans had driven the economy into a ditch; from now going forward, the question will be why he hasn’t towed it out.
If past elections are any indication, strategists and political scientists say, Obama has a limited amount of time — perhaps until next summer — to do that.
By the final months leading up to an election, voters have already decided how they feel about the outlook, said Robert J. Shapiro, who was the top economic adviser to Bill Clinton in his 1992 presidential campaign. He currently heads an economic consulting firm.
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said his recent focus groups among swing voters suggest that they understand the intractability of the problem, but are also impatient.
“Nobody blames him for the country’s economic problems, and they are still willing to be hopeful about Obama, including hopeful about his ability to move the country in a better direction,” Garin said. “But against that, people truly are frustrated with the slow pace of change, and they don’t see enough signs at the moment that we’re on a path that will lead to better days.”
Refocusing on jobs
The White House has said that it will be pivoting to put all of its focus onto the economy and jobs. But the narrative of Obama’s presidency has been that other things — most recently, the protracted negotiations over the debt ceiling — keep interrupting that story line.
And there is always the possibility of the setback of a foreign shock, perhaps from Europe’s debt crisis.
Meanwhile, Obama will be sharing the political stage with GOP opponents, who will be lobbing their own criticisms.
“Today’s unemployment report represents the 30th straight month that the jobless rate has been above 8 percent,” former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney said Friday. “When you see what this president has done to the economy in just three years, you know why America doesn’t want to find out what he can do in eight.”
Exactly what Obama could do to change the course at this point, however, is difficult to figure out.
Loading...
Comments