A St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll taken in the days after the controversy showed McCaskill ahead by nine points, but other polling has indicated a much tighter race.
GOP Senate setbacks
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The Akin fiasco is only the latest setback for Republican ambitions to take the Senate.
After Snowe announced she would not seek reelection in Maine, former governor Angus King, a popular independent, announced he would run to replace her, probably taking the state out of the Republican column and forcing the GOP to win five seats to guarantee control.
Then came Akin’s interview, on a local St. Louis television station, in which he defended his position of opposing abortion even in cases of rape and incest.
Republicans say they still feel confident about picking up a seat in Nebraska, where polls show Democratic former senator Bob Kerrey trailing Republican Deb Fischer to replace Sen. Ben Nelson (D), who is retiring.
But to win the chamber, Republicans will also have to win a collection of races in which polls have been exceptionally tight. Their opportunities lie in North Dakota, where Democratic former attorney general Heidi Heitkamp has been running closer than expected with Republican Rep. Rick Berg, as well as in Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Florida.
Even with closer-than-expected contests in Wisconsin and Connecticut, the GOP will need a series of good breaks between now and November — and perhaps a strong pull from the top of the ticket by Mitt Romney — to take the Senate.
Republicans had not figured that one of those breaks would have to come in Missouri.
Immediately after Akin’s remarks, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) vowed to spend no money on his race, echoing the disdain of a leading independent super PAC associated with Karl Rove. Rove grew so frustrated with Akin’s refusal to drop out that he jokingly insinuated to wealthy donors at the Republican National Convention about having Akin “murdered.” He, too, apologized.
Without national support, Akin seemed vulnerable to a coming onslaught of McCaskill advertising expected to hit him on his abortion comment, as well as on student loans and his opposition to the minimum wage and school lunch programs.
On Friday, several Missouri television stations said they were canceling Akin ad buys after receiving only half of the scheduled payments, a sign the campaign may already be running out of cash. Campaign officials said they were merely reallocating dollars to spend more closer to Election Day.
National Republicans say there is no chance they will return to the race, noting that GOP officeholders in Missouri have declined to campaign with Akin and that the NRSC has even canceled $3 million in reserved ad time in the state.
But Akin advisers are not flinching. They say McCaskill remains beatable — her popularity has taken a dive here and she is vulnerable because of votes in favor of key Obama agenda items, including the stimulus and the health-care overhaul.
They say D.C. Republicans ultimately will not stay out of a race so critical to their national prospects — if they are convinced Akin won’t end his campaign.
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