Fairy tale unlikely for CAA basketball teams this season

Two months from now, when the 68-team NCAA men’s basketball tournament field is revealed, the leading conferences will again turn a wary eye toward the Colonial Athletic Association.

They’ll remember Virginia Commonwealth, a borderline at-large selection last year, dismissing five big programs to land in the Final Four. They’ll recall Old Dominion taking two-time finalist Butler to the buzzer and George Mason storming back to bump off Villanova.

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They’ll note ODU and VCU upsets in recent springs and George Mason’s Final Four odyssey in 2006. Accordingly, any team with an appreciation of college basketball’s annual surprises will hope to dodge a CAA matchup.

This year, however, the rest of the field will brace for probably just one CAA rascal. A season after receiving three bids — the most in its 29-year history — the CAA stumbled through the nonleague schedule and fell precipitously in conference stature.

In the latest Ratings Percentage Index, a formula factoring records and strength of schedule for 344 Division I teams, VCU and Drexel are the lone CAA programs to crack the top 100 (Nos. 83 and 96, respectively). George Mason, which is tied for first in the conference standings, is 112th.

At the end of the last regular season, the CAA boasted two teams in the RPI top 25, six in the top 90 and was rated 10th among 32 conferences. Two years ago, it was the 12th-best league in terms of overall conference RPI. This week, it’s 18th.

“Our league stands where it always stands: We’re a very good mid-major league,” VCU Coach Shaka Smart said. “I don’t think that has changed over the last several years and I don’t think that will change. The reality is, we’re a younger league than we were last year.”

Although eight of the 12 teams returned at least three starters, young players are at the forefront. Four of the top six scorers, the two best rebounders and four of the first five assists leaders are non-seniors.

Early in the season, the growing pains showed.

Drexel, the CAA’s preseason favorite, lost to Norfolk State and scored just 35 points against Virginia. George Mason, which received votes in national preseason polls, lost to Florida International and Florida Atlantic. Delaware fell to Howard and Radford, two of the lowest-rated teams in the country.

The conference’s most glaring blemish comes courtesy of Towson. The Tigers have a 37-game losing streak, the longest in Division I history. (New Jersey Tech lost 51 in a row between 2007 and 2009 but was transitioning from Division II.)

Hofstra is the only CAA team to have beaten RPI top 70 opponents (No. 34 Iona and No. 68 Cleveland State) but is 6-12 overall and 0-6 in the league. The league’s nonconference record last season was 90-63. This season, it’s 65-70.

The final opportunity to make a mark nationally is the Bracket Busters event next month, when each team will face a nonconference opponent of similar caliber. Until then, everyone will continue to beat up on one another in league play. What the CAA lacks in national presence it makes up for in parity: Six teams are within a game of first place.

“It seems like in past years we’ve maybe had a few teams that you said, ‘Well, look out, those guys are going to be a pretty tough bunch to knock out of the standings and ride through this thing,’ ” said Blaine Taylor, whose ODU squad is tied with George Mason and Georgia State at 5-1 and a game ahead of VCU, Drexel and Northeastern.

“There are just so many people capable right now. All of it lends itself to a collision course atop of the league.”

With a deep roster and formidable front court, the Patriots are probably the most capable of securing the CAA’s automatic berth to the NCAA tournament. They’ve won six of seven and will play six of the next eight at home, starting Wednesday against Delaware.

Despite a 13-5 overall record, though, the Patriots haven’t accomplished enough to warrant NCAA at-large consideration. Their only semi-notable nonconference wins were against No. 86 Bucknell at home and No. 89 College of Charleston on the road.

George Mason’s schedule is among the 85 weakest in the country, partly the result of the defeat to Florida International. Coming in the first round of the National Invitation Tournament Season Tip-Off, the Patriots missed a chance to play Virginia Tech and possibly No. 1 Syracuse. Instead, they ended up facing Monmouth and Brown.

George Mason’s Paul Hewitt, in his first CAA season after 11 in the ACC with Georgia Tech, prefers to assess teams individually rather than through the prism of a conference.

“There is so much more parity now, I think there’s a blend going on in terms of which league has good teams, which league has bad teams,” he said. “If you’re good in college basketball today, regardless what league you’re in, people are going to recognize you.

“Hopefully we can continue to be at the top of this league and if we are, we’ll be recognized with some of the better programs in the country.”