Heading into the final week of the regular season for football, here are our playoff projections: Who’s in, who needs a win and who needs some help to qualify for the football postseason in Northern Virginia.
Still alive: Fairfax (5-4)
Skinny: Westfield has wrapped up the region’s top seed for the second year in a row. The race for the second seed is tight between Lake Braddock, Centreville and Chantilly, which enter the weekend separated by only three power points. Fairfax, which is currently in ninth, has a shot to squeak into the field if it can knock off undefeated Stone Bridge and if Oakton loses to Centreville. The Rebels are 0-3 against the Bulldogs and have been outscored 123-28 in those games.
Skinny: Stone Bridge — which fell to South County in the region semifinals last season, ending a streak of four straight region titles — has clinched the top seed. Yorktown and Madison can be seeded no lower than third. South County, which plays W.T. Woodson (2-7); Jefferson, which plays South Lakes (3-6); and McLean, which plays Langley, will likely vie for the final two slots.
In with a win: Patrick Henry-Roanoke (7-2), Woodbridge (5-4)
Still alive: Osbourn (5-5)
Skinny: Stonewall Jackson has wrapped up its first playoff berth since the 2004 season — the last time the Raiders posted a winning record — and will earn the top seed and a first-round bye if it beats Woodbridge. The Vikings, however, need a victory to leapfrog idle Osbourn for the final slot. Hylton, which plays Osbourn Park (5-4), and Colonial Forge, which faces Riverbend (5-4), are battling for the second seed and other first-round bye. If both teams win, Hylton has the tiebreaker edge; the Bulldogs beat Colonial Forge, 35-16, on Oct. 12. Osbourn, which completed its regular season last week, holds onto the sixth spot if Woodbridge loses.
In: North Stafford (8-1), Massaponax (6-3), Potomac (6-3), George Washington (7-2), Mountain View (6-3)
In with a win: Brooke Point (4-5)
Still alive: Broad Run (4-5)
Skinny: North Stafford, which fell to eventual champion Phoebus in overtime in the Division 5 semifinals last season, has already clinched the top seed and first-round bye. Massaponax, Potomac and George Washington have a shot at the second seed and other first-round bye; Potomac gets the spot with a win over Forest Park (4-5), coupled with a victory from either North Stafford (vs. 1-8 Orange), Battlefield (vs. 3-6 Patriot) or Woodbridge (vs. Stonewall Jackson). Brooke Point guarantees its spot with a win over Mountain View, but the Black-Hawks can still get in if Broad Run falls to Freedom-South Riding (3-6). If the Spartans beat their Loudoun County rival — and Broad Run is 6-0 all-time against the Eagles, with an average margin of victory of 36.5 points — and Brooke Point loses to Mountain View, then the Spartans can grab the sixth and final seed.
In with a win: Powhatan (4-4)
Still alive: Potomac Falls (3-6), Louisa County (3-6)
Skinny: A trio of Dulles District teams — Briar Woods, Tuscarora and Loudoun County — have secured the region’s top three seeds, though the order still needs to be determined. The Falcons, the two-time defending Division 4 champions, earn the top spot with a win over the Raiders on Friday. Even with a loss, they could still lock up home-field advantage based on other results. Powhatan is most likely in the field regardless of its result against Charlottesville (4-5). Potomac Falls, which travels to Dominion (3-6), and Louisa County, which faces Western Albemarle (9-0), are mathematically still alive, but just barely. Both teams need a win Friday coupled with a Powhatan loss to even have a chance.
In: Western Albemarle (9-0), Skyline (8-1), Kettle Run (7-2), Warren County (8-1), Monticello (7-2), Fauquier (7-2), Charlottesville (4-5), Loudoun Valley (4-5)
Skinny: The field is set; all that’s at stake this weekend is seeding, though Western Albemarle and Skyline have the inside track for the top two seeds. There is a scenario where Handley (2-7), currently ninth, could tie Loudoun Valley in power points, but the Vikings hold the tiebreaking edge (overall winning percentage).