In Saturday’s prep races, the main object of attention, aside from Uncle Mo, was supposed to have been Premier Pegasus, the solid favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on the strength of his seven-length victory in the San Felip stakes. But Thursday morning assistant trainer Maria Ayala noted the colt “had a little stumble” in his morning gallop and later discovered a hairline fracture in his left foreleg, knocking him out of the race and the Kentucky Derby as well.
Jaycito, the second-place finisher in the San Felipe, will probably inherit the favorite’s role. But he, like the winner, benefited from a perfect set-up in the San Felipe, rallying after three leaders had fought for the early lead at a suicidal pace. I like to bet against horses who have benefited from a perfect trip, and I will take a shot Saturday with Comma at the Top, one of the embattled pacesetters in the San Felipe, who should get a much more comfortable trip in the Santa Anita Derby.
The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne has sometimes produced surprise contenders for the Kentucky Derby (such as the 2002 winner War Emblem), but this year’s weak field, headed by Watch Me Go, doesn’t appear to have any horses remotely worthy of running for the roses. The only other prep race that appears to be a crucial precursor of the Triple Crown series is next Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.
When The Factor won his maiden race on Dec. 26 by running six furlongs in phenomenal track-record time, even trainer Bob Baffert doubted that he could turn the tear-away front-runner into a Derby horse in four months. “I’m not going to fry him to get to the Derby,” Baffert declared.
But the colt passed his subsequent tests, first winning a seven-furlong stakes, then winning at 1 1
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16 miles in the Rebel Stakes, the prep for the Arkansas Derby. Questions remain about his stamina as well as his ability to win if he doesn’t have the early lead. But if he does win the 1 1
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8-mile test at Oaklawn Park, he will set the stage for a compelling Kentucky Derby showdown.
sports@washpost.com
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